Week 5 ACC Predictions

Alright, last week was disappointing, so in order to turn the tide, I'm getting back to the basics. I've got my magic 8-ball, a lucky rabbit's foot, and one of those D&D 20-sided die. I swear it's not mine, I stole it from that nerd who lives down the street.

Calm down Ogre, I handled it.

Gimme Games

Miami over Bethune Cookman

Maryland over Towson

Upset Watch

Georgia Tech over NC State

FIU over Duke

Idaho over Virginia

50/50 Games

Virginia Tech over Clemson

Wake Forest over Boston College

UNC over ECU

Sorry there won't be any commentary or explanation for these picks, as I've got to be out on the road most of the day, and plan on writing another piece this afternoon reviewing my preseason September record predictions for all 12 ACC teams.

For now I'll just leave you with this for your entertainment.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Game 5 Preview: Hokies, and Tigers, and Beer, Oh My!

Welcome to the 2011 college football season Hokie fans! Nothing against our opponents in September, and not to say none of them were capable of upsetting us, but my biggest fear wasn't losing games this past month, it was losing players to injury. We've lost a couple goods ones, so that is a bit disappointing, but in my opinion we did exactly what we wanted in these first four games.

Now it is time for the blood to start pumping, the hair to raise wherever it is you happen to have hair (no details please), and whatever nervous twitches you may have to start going at full speed. While it may not be good for your health, it's exactly how I hope to feel every week, especially for a game I'll be in attendance for. I'll enjoy the tailgating with family and college friends, the atmosphere as I'm walking into the stadium, and the electric pulse of the crowd during the "LET'S GO...HOKIES!!" chant right before Sandman. I'll be bringing a friend with me for the game who I don't think has ever been to Lane Stadium before, but if he has it was as a fan of the other team, so it's always fun to initiate new blood.

All eyes will be on us for the first time really all season, while the Tigers have gotten most of the national exposure and respect due to their big wins the past two weeks. I'm always curious how much of our games the analysts actually watch when we're not on a nationally televised game or playing big time opponents. They do their research and read the stats, but I can never fully believe their views on what the team is doing right or wrong or capable of. So to some extent I don't blame anyone who puts more of their faith into Clemson right now, but as usual, I think we're flying under the radar to how prepared we are for a game of this caliber.

Clemson Offense


To give credit where credit is due, Clemson has surprised me with their efficiency on the offensive side of the ball all season long. With a new coordinator, new QB, and new offensive philosophy, there haven't really been any growing pains this year for the Tigers. Averaging almost 38 points a game is pretty damn good, even if you want to argue the opponents and their respective defensive capabilities as a possible catalyst for that average.

The key to stopping this high powered O will come down to two things: Keeping them out of the endzone, and keeping them off the field. Sounds simple, and what you should do every game, but I'll expand.

Clemson is very good at controlling the clock and wearing down the opposing D by the 2nd half. To try and counter that, it is important for both sides of the ball to contribute. The defense needs to do its thing and get the stops as quickly as possible. This will keep the crowd loud and excited each possession, and will keep the legs rested. The offense needs to be able to sustain their own drives to give Bud's Boys ample time to rest. Once again, sounds simple and obvious, but will play a big part in the final outcome.

Tajh Boyd has been lights out this year (66% completions, 13:1 TD:INT). He is able to keep the opposing defense honest by spreading the ball out to a plethora of receivers, so you can't focus on just one or two guys. If there is one guy you need to keep your eye on every play, it is freshman Sammy Watkins. He leads a large pool of receivers in every statistical category by a good margin for the low amount of games played. He is also one of those freak athletes that is capable of scoring just about any time he gets his hands on the ball.

While the passing game is definitely the focus and strength, the run game shouldn't be underestimated. There are very capable backs on this roster, and Andre Ellington was one of my "players-to-watch" at the beginning of the season. There needs to be a high level of discipline to shut down the run, and force Boyd to try and make calls at the line in a deafening atmosphere. We also can't afford to put all our chips in one basket and focus solely on one receiver. Hosley would be great to have on Watkins as often as possible, but with all the movements, and shifts the Tigers will do, it wouldn't be good in the long run to have Jayron shadow him all the time.

Clemson Defense


While the main attraction of the game will be the Clemson O vs the Hokie D and who wins that battle, as a Hokie fan, I'm excited to see what happens on the other side of the coin. Clemson is averaging giving up 25 ppg, while the Hokies average scoring almost 35. Statistically speaking we should be able to score 3-4 touchdowns in this game as long as we're not completely inept. Even if we take away one for difference of opponent's skill level, we're still looking at points in the 20s.

For as successful as Clemson's recruiting has been year in and year out, it is surprising what poor numbers the Tigers are giving up. There has been turnover in some positions this past season, and a couple of studs who are a little too young/inexperienced to contribute right now, but the numbers are still bad. Giving up 400 yards a game, with there being an almost 50/50 split between rushing and passing yards doesn't scare most opposing offenses. If you're good at passing, do that. Same for run heavy teams. And teams like VT who are very balanced and capable at both, you have a fall back if one isn't going so well that day.

In the past, it's been the Tigers' O-line that has given them problems, but this year it is the D-line. Instead of getting sacked all the time, now they can't tackle anyone behind the line of scrimmage. In a game of two young QBs, trying to rattle the other could play a big key, and in that area the Hokies definitely have the advantage. The Lieutenant should have plenty of time in the pocket to survey the D and make appropriate decisions. The Jet and J.O. should be able to find the holes and get positive yards on every touch. This is the area we need to exploit if we want to control the clock and scoreboard.

The (Not Really An) Intangible


The beauty of college sports is the fact that there is turnover for every team every year. Each season and recruiting class is the possibility for almost every program to take a step forward in becoming a contender. The down side to this is that it makes the past record between two teams almost a pointless stat; especially for teams like Clemson and VT who only play each other (scheduled) twice every five years. In the second game of a two year series, you can look at what happened last year, but after that, usually half the starters and sometimes the coaches are different.

Having said that, the Hokies have completely dominated the Tigers. Here are the scores of the each game since the 1998 season:

1998 - VT 38, Clemson 0 (Clemson, SC)
1999 - VT 31, Clemson 11 (Blacksburg, VA)
2001 - VT 41, Clemson 21 (Gator Bowl)
2006 - VT 24, Clemson 7 (Blacksburg, VA)
2007 - VT 41, Clemson 23 (Clemson, SC)

In some of those games VT was clearly the better team. Some of them Clemson was hot or we were cold, and we were underdogs. Whatever the situation, the players, the coaches, etc., we played electric on defense and were able to punch them in the mouth from early on through most of the game. If this game was being played with last year's VT defense, but this year's Clemson offense, I would be more scared of this game than I am. Not to say I'm not scared, I think this is literally a 50/50 game as to who the winner will be. But the reason we have had success against the Tigers in the past decade-plus is a strength for us this year too. Not that I would have otherwise, but that is the main reason I am picking the Hokies to win.

Score Prediction: Gobblers - 27   Tigers - 20


LET'S GO...HOKIES!!!

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Week 4 Thoughts

It certainly wasn't the dominating from start to finish win the Hokies and their fans might have been hoping for to end non-conference play. There were still the same frustrating mistakes with execution in the 2nd half on O. Special Teams looks anything but. But the Gobblers are 4-0 heading into October and a big two week home stand where getting the win will be all that matters.

Once again the first team defense was the dominant force it's been since Week 1. There were a couple shaky drives where we gave up a few more first downs that I would have liked. And the quick three play TD drive for the Herd at the end of the half was hard to watch. It appeared that we had some second string guys out there expecting them to just run out the clock, and then with their hurry up style, we were unable to switch personnel and communicate properly.

When it originally looked like Marshall had received the 2 points for returning the blocked xp, I told my friend that's the exact kind of unexpected play that scared me about picking the shutout. When it was overturned I thought it was a sign that maybe the big zero was fate, but that didn't last much longer. Cato was by no means overly impressive, but I see the raw skills that Marshall's true freshman QB possesses, and it will be interesting to see how much he improves by the time the Herd return to Lane in 2013.

On the positive side of the poor execution on offense is the fact that the players and coaches are aware and aren't satisfied either. Coale had a couple quotes in post game I read that gave off both the concern and desire to fix it that I would hope to hear. The skill is there, and it's proven in the total number of yards we're putting up each game. Something just happens when we're deep in the opponent's backyard, and we can't afford to leave points on the field for the majority of the games we have left.

Doing a little bit of a look forward to next week, I cannot be more excited about the game. Having moved far away from Blacksburg, I usually only get to go to one home game a year, and I had chosen this one a while back. (At the time the choice was down to either Clemson or Miami, and now I'm going to both, but more on the Miami story after next week). This is going to be the biggest game in Lane since Miami 2009, and it would be hard for any other home game to top it this season. It will be a treat to be a part of the terror that is a night game in Lane Stadium with a couple undefeated, top-20 teams down on Worsham Field.

Across the ACC


I've already touched a bit on Clemson and how good they've been the past couple weeks. One could say Auburn isn't last year's Auburn by a long shot, and that FSU was slightly depleted, but it was still two quality wins, and the Tigers have the one thing that matters the most in sports: overwhelming confidence.

Miami, come here we need to have a talk. Now I realize that I sort of slighted you by not talking about your game in my predictions blog, but that was because I just expected you to win in a nothing special game. I know, the only thing that seems to matter in South Beach is ego, and I hurt yours, and you wanted to take it out on me. But it wasn't just me; it was the league, your future opponents' strength of schedule, and your own fans' hearts that you hurt. Forget that last one, that actually makes me happy. My only real crime here is that I put too much faith in a program that hasn't been "The U" since joining the ACC, and will probably never "be back" after this year with what is about to happen to your program.

Same goes for Maryland. Now I never put too much stock in the Terps, but when I predict them to win, and they get completely killed like they did, it makes me feel stupid. And I don't like feeling stupid. Don't do it again.

Boston College, you're fine, because you just did your job.

Overall I had a horrible week on my predictions, going 5-4. No real excuse for that (except the people I just blamed earlier). As conference play starts, there will be less total ACC games each week, so I'll need to get as many right as possible to keep the percentage respectable.

Week 4 Predictions: 5-4
September Overall: 30-8
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 30-8


Final Parting Shot


Dear Miami,

Love,

H.O.T.F.G.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

ACC Week 4 Predictions

After last week's monster non-conference showdowns, this week appears to be a little more tame for the ACC. Most teams are continuing or finishing up their non-conference games, but there are a couple divisional matchups that should provide for an entertaining game. Both could also play a big factor into the final conference standings in their respective divisions.

Gimme Games
Virginia Tech over Marshall

Upset Watch
Maryland over Temple
Duke over Tulane
Miami over Kansas State
Cincinnati over NC State

50/50 Games
Georgia Tech over UNC
FSU over Clemson
Southern Miss over UVA
UMass over Boston College

The only game on this list that should be a guarantee win (not counting the fact I'm writing this after the beatdown Cincy gave the Pack), is the Hokies over the Herd.

Maryland could probably be 2-0 right now if they didn't wait until late in the 3rd quarter to start their comeback against WVU last weekend. They're going to be a good team this year, but can't afford to start slow against ranked teams on their schedule.

Duke didn't really impress me too much last week in their first win, as Boston College lost it as much as Duke won. They have the chance now to take the momentum and get to .500 on the year after September. Boston College right now probably think they're cursed and afraid that no matter what they do they will find a way to lose. That isn't a good mindset to have against an inferior opponent who is feeling good about themselves right now.

Clemson and Florida State are right now playing for the early lead in the Atlantic Division, with the winner in a great position to go to Charlotte already up essentially two games over their likely closest opponent in the standings at the end of November. EJ Manuel might be the key to whether or not the Noles can rebound from last week's loss to #1. If he can't play, or is played sparingly, this could be the perfect opportunity for the Tigers to build on last weeks win. (As I will be in attendance for the game next week, and the Hokies need all the help they can get with SOS, I'm slightly pulling for Clemson in this one.)

Georgia Tech and UNC play in as equally important of a game, although the winner won't be the automatic favorite in their division. Both teams are undefeated, albeit against no real competition. GT however has looked far and away the most consistent and dangerous on offense out of the entire ACC so far. It will be fun to watch how they do against one of the strongest defenses in the league.

And I'm picking Southern Miss to upset UVA in Charlottesville. Don't think about it too hard, just go with it.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Game 4 Preview: Turkey Legs vs Buffalo Wings

Alright, well buffalo wings aren't real buffalo (and no Virginia, there isn't a...nevermind), but at least they're not as cannibalistic as Hokie fans.

Virginia Tech ends their non-conference schedule for the year this weekend, right at the time many fans are looking for more important games to start. Yes, the next two weeks will be more entertaining in an opponent/scoreboard aspect, but it's a good thing to have this last game before conference play starts up. As boring as some of the games have been so far, it is clear the 2011 Hokies needed these first four games to tune up for ACC play.

While these two schools don't have much in common when it comes to program prestige, they have shared one unfortunate thing in common when it comes to school tragedies. Everyone knows about the shooting at VT a few years ago, but not many outside of the region would know much about Marshall's plane crash. Sure there was the Matthew McConaughey vehicle We Are Marshall, but it wasn't enough of a box office success to be as widely known as more recent events, which is sad.

There is more of a Virginia Tech connection to Marshall than just the shared empathy. Two former Hokies were part of the 75 on board who died in the plane crash. Frank Loria and Rick Tolley were both on the coaching staff at the time (defensive backs and head coach respectively), and Loria also played with Coach Beamer on the VT football team while in college. I believe I read somewhere this week that there is an event planned in recognition of those who perished, during or before the football matchup.

Thundering Herd Offense


Just like earlier in the year when we played ECU who last year was one of the worst defensive units in the country, we now play a team that was one of the worst offensively last year. ECU has shown so far this year to have improved their weakness, but Marshall not so much. The one big problem that will keep Marshall from reaching their any true potential is the fact that they start a true freshman QB in Rakeem Cato.

At running back, Tron Martinez has averaged about 6 ypc this season, but only carrying the ball about 12 times a game. Whether he's really a 6-yard-a-carry back, or if the run game is just non-existent enough to catch opponents off guard isn't very clear. Either way, I don't expect the Hokies' D to give up any big plays on the ground.

Cato definitely likes one receiver more than the rest in Aaron Dobson. He's averaging about 5 catches and 50 yards a game (yes that's top on the team), but has caught three of Cato's four TD passes. The truth is, this offense is still young and not explosive at all. Most of their touchdown drives in their lone win this year came on a short field. Of course given Tech's punting situation, if they go three-and-out after starting deep in their own territory, the Herd may have a chance for a short field.

Thundering Herd Defense


On the front line, Marshall has a legit DE in Vinny Curry, but the drop off after that is noticeable. The DT position has good size, so we'll see if the Hokies continue to run up the middle, or try to run away from that size. Right now the Hokies have had a couple minor setbacks on the O-line due to injury, but they should still be able to open lanes and protect the Lieutenant against this defensive line.

If there is a strength in this defense, it is in the linebacking corps. The Herd start three seniors in the middle, including star George Carpenter. These linebackers help out with the run, but the pass defense is still very weak. After Carpenter, the other two linebackers are of pretty good size, of almost identical build. It will be interesting to see if the Hokies choose to run at Carpenter, who is better but smaller, or to the weaker side that contains bigger bodies.

Now if there is a weakness in this defense (and there are many) it is the secondary. There is a combination of youth and experience, but not skill. Their best cornerback is Rashad Jackson, who has five pass break-ups and one pick this season so far. While The Jet may be capable of racking up the yards against this team, I see the coaches allowing the receivers and tight ends to work on their routes and timing a good amount in preparation of two stronger teams coming to Lane to start October. Especially with Boykin being out this weekend with a hamstring injury, it will be good to get younger and less experienced guys some good work this week.

Conclusion


So far this year we've seen the Tech offense show great promise, but also stutter at times. Just as I feel they did in the second half last week, I expect there to be a lot of "practice" in the playcalling. While this may or may not put up lots of yards and points, it will give the coaches a good list of what is or isn't working. We can take those kind of risks now without much fear of losing. It may also work, and we can put up the type of numbers we did against Marshall two years ago (605 yards, 52 points).

There is no reason to doubt the Tech D against any opponent, and even less against this offense. Unless there is a turnover or a bad series that gives Marshall good field position, I don't see them being able to drive consistently enough to put themselves in scoring position. For the Herd to be able to pull off the upset, it would take a near perfect performance on both sides of the ball, as well as a few lucky bounces. I hate to predict the shutout, as there are so many little things that can give a team points in as little as one lucky play, but unless we're playing backups for most of the second half (and even then it would be possible) I can't see the Herd scoring any points honestly on their own.

Score Prediction: Gobblers - 38   Thundering Herd - 0


Also, as my ACC predictions article won't be up until tomorrow afternoon, I'll go ahead and make my prediction for the Thursday night matchup.

Cincinnati over NC State

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on twitter for blog updates and live gameday thoughts @UtProsimGobbler

Week 3 Thoughts

Well on the bright side, our WR corps will be a bit deeper and experienced for 2012. I feel really bad that Dyrell now has to sit out another year after missing the second half of last season as well. Even worse that it's for a completely unrelated injury to what sidelined him last year. That's just bad luck.

For the first half, The Lieutenant showed a good progression from the first couple games. The two interceptions on Saturday aren't what bothers me as much as how many more there could be without drops by defenders in all three games so far. He needs to get better at going through his progressions and not staring down the intended target from the snap. We also need to take into account that the Red Wolves have ten senior starters on defense, so while they might not statistically be a great defense, they are an experienced group.

In my opinion, one part of the playcalling that needs to be changed is more runs to the outside, especially when The Jet is in the backfield. David is just as strong as he is fast, but we need to give him more space to do his magic in than right at the heart of the line. This is even more important when we're closer to the endzone to try and help our redzone offense. I'm not saying it has to be more outside than inside, but more than what is being called in the past two games.

Right now we can't thank Bud's crew enough for how amazing they're playing and how much they've improved since nine months ago. With the exception of the one big play to start the game for ASU with a great out-and-up route, this could have been the first shutout of the season. Depending on the score differential late in the game and how much backups are being used, I'm looking for the big zero on the scoreboard for Marshall next week.

Overall this week, the only real complaint I can come up with is the inefficiency at punching the ball in after a long drive. Hopefully the playcalling becomes a little more diverse once Logan gets more comfortable with the playbook and opposing defenses become stronger. I'm not complaining like most used to do with Stinespring when I say the playcalling needs to expand. I feel it is very possible against these weaker non-conference teams that we're not showing our full hand. When we play games where points could come at a premium, there are probably a number of plays in the arsenal for those exact situations.

The bottom line at this point in time is the Hokies are 3-0. We are also the highest ranked ACC team in one poll. If you want, you can always find negatives to complain about, but when they don't outweigh the positives, the fanbase needs live in the moment, and not in an unknown and unlikely dark future.

Across the ACC


The biggest story for the weekend (since we couldn't knock off #1) has to be the expansion. I agree that Pittsburgh and Syracuse aren't going to do much for the conference on the football side of things, but there are a lot of good that will come from adding them. The obvious winner in this is how much better the ACC is going to be at basketball, and we were already pretty damn good. In reality, the ACC is always going to be a basketball-first conference.While football might be the big moneymaker, and usually the thought process behind other conference's expansion, this decision from this commissioner and league doesn't surprise me.

Another great positive for this is we now know that the conference isn't going to dissipate anytime soon. I normally don't care to worry about expansion possibilities until something concrete happens, but my #1 choice regarding the Hokies and their conference affiliation was to stay in the ACC if we didn't lose any current schools to another conference. Between the adding of Cuse and Pitt, and the extreme increase in buyout cost to leave the conference, I don't see any of the 12 current schools leaving.

On the field this week, the conference did well for themselves. Miami and Clemson took care of their ranked opponents at home, and Maryland almost had a huge comeback against WVU. There were no scares in the games that shouldn't have been close, and the two inter-league games were competitive. With all 12 teams in action on Saturday, the most disappointing loss was by 10 to the best team in the country.

This week saw my predictions take a hit from the previous two weeks. Instead of only missing one game, I missed a disappointing two this week. I'll probably lose readers for a while until I can get back to looking like I know what I'm doing. (Sarcasm aside, I thank everyone who takes the time to read my drivel.)

Week 3 Predictions: 8-2
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 25-4


Final Parting Shot


After teasing I would leave Notre Dame alone last week before that Shyamalan quality twist, I have to actually pick a new target this week. My new roommate is an MSU grad who was hoping to get a shout-out if the Spartans pulled out the victory, but losers don't get airtime.

Honestly the only two scenarios I can come up with this week for biggest/best let down for a team would be either UCF or TCU. UCF, after averaging 46 ppg in their first two games, was only able to muster 10 points in a losing effort to FIU. But FIU is 3-0, so while disappointing, not really that bad. Plus given my location, that's the one school I probably shouldn't start putting down.

TCU might be the biggest loser this weekend in regards to conference affiliation. Less than a year before they were set to move up to a BCS quality conference (kind of), they are now stuck going to a conference that may lose even more teams by this time next year. But really that's more sad than funny. I guess what I'm getting at is there isn't a going to be a good "HAHA" this week, and now I'm just wasting your time in reading this.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter for updates @UtProsimGobbler

Week 3 ACC Predictions

Well it's Friday night and I'm already 1-for-1 in my weekly predictions. I was unable to write my preview for this week's game due to the busy week. Plus Arkansas State would have required more research than I normally have the time to do, so that would have added more time to complete a full write up. But now that the moving is mostly done I can sit back and write out my predictions for this week's ACC games while watching that exciting Friday night game. Actually as of now it's 13-6 midway through the 2nd, so actually not terribly boring.

This week provides a great opportunity for the ACC for the most part to try and help the reputation of the conference as a whole. No one game will be able to do that on its own (although if that one was FSU over Oklahoma, especially if it's convincingly, that would be the best chance). However, if two (depending on which two) or more were to win, possibly the conference will be on its way to gaining more respect and talk time from the analysts and talking heads.

But as much as I would like that to happen, I've adopted the "wait until it happens" mentality.

Gimme Games
Virginia Tech over Arkansas State
NC State over South Alabama
Wake Forest over Gardner Webb

Upset Watch
Georgia Tech over Kansas
North Carolina over Virginia
Duke over Boston College

50/50 Games
Auburn over Clemson
West Virginia over Maryland
Ohio State over Miami
Oklahoma over Florida State

Virginia has some momentum and have played better than most expected so far against inferior opponents, but UNC still has the depth, experience, and talent.

I'm taking my chances one more time with Duke, but I'm done if they make me look bad again. Boston College hasn't shown any real strengths to make one think they can win a game so far, and I haven't seen anything saying Montel Harris will be back or close to 100%.

For the big four games on this week's schedule, I don't really think the ACC will go 0-4, but individually I can't trust any of these teams to pull off the win.

Even though I can't write up an entire preview article, I'll go ahead and end this blog with my score prediction for the VT/ASU game.

Score Prediction:  Fighting Gobblers: 38   Red Wolves: 7


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter for live gameday thoughts throughout the day @UtProsimGobbler

Week 2 Thoughts

Before we get into anything negative, I'm going to take the time to recognize two outstanding positives.

First and foremost, congratulations to Frank Beamer on his 200th win at VT. That number would be amazing even if it was the only wins he had, but the fact that he has done it at one school says a lot about him, the school, and the fan base. Without tremendous support from everyone, that doesn't happen no matter how good of a coach one is, and he is one of the best, on and off the field.

Second, congratulations to Jarrett Boykin on setting the VT career receptions leader. For a school that isn't known as much for its passing, it is special when those records get broken, even if they might not be as high as at other schools. It shows how much skill and consistency he has displayed over the past 3+ years, and the final numbers he'll be at after this season will probably stand for a long time.

This isn't going to be a "the sky is falling" type of recap. By nature I am an optimistic kind of fan, and even if I thought the team did everything wrong this weekend (which they didn't) I wouldn't jump of the ship after just one bad game. Sometimes you have to put things into perspective. The Hokies got the win, so everything after that can only be so bad, and I like to use those as a learning experience.

This was The Lieutenant's first road start, so it is ok with me that he has a lot to review and improve upon. If the game had been lost, that is what could mess with his confidence more so than having a few bad throws or decisions. When you have the confidence of the guys around you picking up the slack, you can take away some of the pressure that is put on the QB, and allow him to grow into a great leader and player at an appropriate pace.

One of the negatives that did worry me to some extent is the number of dropped balls by our experienced receivers. For all I know it could just be the adjustment of catching balls that are thrown at a much high velocity than these guys have been used to in the past couple years. If that's the case, we have to assume it will be fixed with experience like most things. If it is some other reason, or anything psychological, then I can't speculate on what needs to be done to fix it.

Penalties is another issue that seemed to play into the closeness of the score yesterday, but I'm never one to blame a ref, or a handful of 5 yard penalties to the overall outcome of the game. It disturbed me that there were zero penalties called on the Pirates (they were using C-USA refs), because they definitely did not play a perfectly clean game. The interception turned pass interference call on Hosley was a bit nit-picky, especially with someone of the other non-calls that went against us. Still, that shouldn't be what matters as long as we fix the penalties on us that were in fact our fault.

Keep in mind that while the final score was close, and that is all most people in the country probably saw, VT did leave a number of points off the board. One, two, or three plays/playcalls differently, and this game is 31-or-so to 10 when people just see the boxscore. Frustrating as it may be, that is the truth, and could be the fine-line difference in how some fans were feeling afterwards.

I cannot begin to say enough good things about our defense. After having a sub-par year in 2010, the one thing most Hokie faithful were probably hoping for this year if they could pick, is to have the defense back up to the normal Bud Foster standards. While they were dominate in the one half they played against ASU, it took this kind of game to make me personally not worry about the first team's ability to stop just about anybody. Playing a quick tempo offense that is known for putting points on the board, and completely shutting them down the way they did takes away any concerns I might have had about any other team we'll play this year. Without a great punt downed at the 1, followed by a short field on their next possession, the Pirates might not have seen the endzone all day.

Most coaches like to say you get the most improvement between game one and two. That is not the case obviously right now, but we'll see how much improvement there will be for the Hokies' offense between the first game they were challenged and the next one. Luckily this learning experience comes at a time we have a couple more games to iron out the wrinkles before more important and tougher competition comes into town.

Thoughts Around The ACC


As of right now, the only team in the conference who has played two games without any real negatives is the Noles. Of course they have played two teams that shouldn't have provided any real threat, and the real test will be next week against the #1 team in the country. Then we'll finally know where they're at as a program this year.

Biggest surprise for me this week was the performance by Wake Forest. After coming off a devastating loss, they turned it around and played well enough to win in their conference opener against a divisional opponent. They might not be the worse team in the conference this year after all.

On the other side of that coin, the biggest disappointments after Week 2 are the Wolfpack and Tigers. I'm not saying the Wolfpack are a disappointment because they lost, and not even because they lost to Wake Forest, but because they clearly had questions after Week 1, and then lost in Week 2. Clemson, while undefeated, also has plenty of questions and concerns to how they'll perform when not playing a low level 1-A or 1-AA team. Not lucky for them, but luckily for those of us trying to judge teams' capabilities, they play three straight ranked teams next, so we'll be able to gauge them more accurately after a couple of those.

This week I went 8-1 in my ACC game predictions, bringing me to 18-2 overall. I'll probably need most of those correct picks later in the season to keep my percentage up now that just about all the easy games to pick are over with. Next week begins conference play for a number of teams, and ranked opponents for another few. No one should be too impressed with me until I'm able to consistently predict the outcomes to those kind of games.

Final Parting Shot


Last week's final parting shot went to Notre Dame after they started off the year losing to USF. Now for (hopefully) everyone reading this, it is well known how they let an early lead, and eventually a final 30 second lead, slip away from them as they lost to Michigan at the first ever night game in The Big House. Of course it would be pretty petty and immature of me to pick the Fighting Irish again for this segment of my weekly thoughts.

Luckily for me however, my current #1 goal in life is to never grow up. So once again Notre Dame coaches, players, and fans, this message of condolence goes out to you.

Remember to follow along on twitter @UtProsimGobbler for blog updates, and live tweeting on gameday

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Week 2 ACC Predictions

After going (unofficially) 10-1 last week in predicting ACC games, the pressure is on to try and convince you fine folks that I know what I'm talking about. I don't. But luckily neither do other "experts". ESPN's ACC blogger only went 7-4, so I've got a couple games in hand after week 1.

Each week I'll break up the games into three separate categories. The "Gimme Games" are games that should be just that, where if there is an upset, it will be talked about for a while. Usually these will be against I-AA teams or lesser non-BCS teams, or highly ranked teams against a lesser ACC team. The "50/50" games are those with low point spreads with either team having as much a chance of winning. Finally the "Upset Watch" will be games not where I'm not necessarily expecting the upset to occur, but rather if it is possible.

Gimme Games
Stanford over Duke
Clemson over Wofford
Florida St. over Charleston Southern

Upset Watch
Virginia Tech over ECU
UNC over Rutgers
NC State over Wake Forest
Georgia Tech over Middle Tennessee State

50/50 Games
UVA over Indiana
UCF over Boston College

As for the games in the "Upset" category this week I'm not picking against any favorites, but if I had to pick ones to watch for it would be either MTSU or Rutgers. Still, I would be surprised to see that happen. Had NC State been more crisp last week offensively I might have considered that a gimme game for the Pack, but I also don't want to consider any game between conference teams a gimme.

I've gone back and forth on the UVA/IU game, but finally settled on the conference team. Besides, if UVA loses, I can just add it to their list of disappointments. Still no definite word on Montel Harris as of the time I am posting this, and UCF looked very good on offense and defense last week.

Unrelated, but you can now follow the "Fighting Gobblers" on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Game Two Preview: The Hokie Pokie vs A Pirate's Life For Me

                                    

Stewart Mandel of Sports Illustrated has started referring to the ACC as the "Virginia Tech Conference" this year due to their dominance since joining the league. So now the question should be, what do we call the state of North Carolina?

Since losing to, you guessed it, ECU in 1992, the Hokies have not lost a road game in the state of NC. This streak spans over 14 games, and covers every 1-A team in the state. Any ECU fans reading this right now are all thinking the same thing: what are you talking about a-hole, we beat VT in 2008 in Charlotte. Yes, that is true, but that was technically a neutral site game. The reason I differ between the two is because the Hokies since joining the ACC have usually excelled in road games, while neutral site games are a different story. (Sidenote: in my almost 26 years of life, I cannot remember a single neutral site game VT has won in which I've been in attendance; bowl games, championship games, season openers)

East Carolina Offense


Clearly the offense under Ruffin McNeill is the strong point of this program currently. They run an Air Raid philosophy that Ruffin brought with him from Texas Tech. This is a quick, pass happy attack that looks to put up the points and rack up the yards.

Last year the Pirates averaged 36 points a game, and matched that total in Week 1 of 2011 against SCar. They have lost their best receiver from last year to graduation, but have plenty of capable bodies to fill in for all those receptions. Usually the gameplan is to get off quick passes that allow their players to get the ball in space, and earn most of their yards with the ball in a playmaker's hands as opposed to in the air. Another benefit of this is it allows for the QB to sucker up the secondary and hit a wideout on a stop-and-go route later when a corner tries to bite on the INT.

For the Hokies to be successful on D, they need to be disciplined and make the tackle on the first attempt. If the receivers aren't allowed to rack up the YAC, it will force ECU to start taking shots deeper down the field to get the first down, which plays into VT's pass rush abilities and skilled secondary. When playing defense against this type of offense, you can't worry about the number of catches, or the QB's completion percentage, but only about the number of yards you allow once the catch is made.

Since ECU will probably throw the ball about 40-50 times a game, they won't run very often. With inexperience at the RB position, look for most runs to come on a read option play, with dual threat QB Dominique Davis probably keeping the ball as often as he hands it off. The linebackers will need to play smart in their assignments, and have quick eyes to try and not bite on any fakes.

East Carolina Defense


The upside to the fact that last year ECU finished 120 out of 120 in total defense is they have no where to go but up. Last week's 56 points given up against the Gamecocks is a little misleading, due to the number of non-offensive points and short fields Head Ball Coach had to work with throughout the game.

While ECU was able to actually keep the total yards down last week, they weren't ever able to keep SCar out of the endzone. One thing VT has prided itself on in the past, both with strong and weak D's, was if they bent, they hardly broke. Inside the redzone, the Hokie D has historically been good at keep TD's off the board, or at least force teams to use every play available to them to get 7. East Carolina did not have this satisfaction in Charlotte, giving up TD's instead of FG's whenever the Cocks got deep into Pirate Territory.

Like App. State last week, the Hokies' opponent in Week 2 has switched from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base formation. While this possibly fits their personnel better, it still leaves them weak against the run. Last week, star running back Marcus Lattimore and semi-mobile QB Stephen Garcia were able to find the holes and get a couple levels deep before running into any would-be tacklers. This plays right into VT's strengths as they have their own star running back and semi-mobile QB. We'll find out if the Pirates change their tactics this week in that regard, but for now, expect the Gobblers to control both the ball and the clock on the ground. If there is a strength to the ECU defense, it is their senior-led secondary, and Coach O'Cain will hope he is never forced to make The Lieutenant try to pick it apart in his first career road start until the situation backs up that call.

The (Not Really An) Intangible


Usually when speaking of intangibles in a football game, we expect to discuss special teams, or turnovers, or other oft overlooked items that play into a 60 minute game of football. For this matchup, I decided to go a different route, and found something else that both schools have in common.

Since the mid 1960's, the VT Corp of Cadets have used a cannon nicknamed "Skipper" in honor of President Kennedy at all home football games. It is carted on the field for pregame ceremonies, then moved outside the stadium and is fired off after each Hokie score. Depending on your location in or out of the stadium, the boom can be deafening, but many Hokie faithful will gladly trade their hearing for a few seconds for what the sound signifies.


East Carolina also has their own cannon that they use throughout the game to represent their Pirate theme. I'll be honest; pirates can be pretty bad ass, and some of the best scenes in pirate movies have always been the big climactic battle scene at the end, where two or more ships are side-by-side, firing those huge weapons at each other, creating chaos among the sword fighters, with parts of the ship exploding and falling apart all around the battle. Sounds to me like this might be a pretty intimidating distraction for visiting players and fans to see out of the corner of their eyes throughout the course of the game. Let's take a look:

Oh...nevermind.

Score Prediction: Gobblers: 45  Purple Pirates: 17

P.S. (Do you put P.S. in pieces of writing other than letters?) Due to work (the thing I actually get paid to do), moving (becoming a yearly tradition), and the fact I know little-to-nothing about Arkansas St. (I wouldn't put money on guessing their nickname, and I've looked it up about five times in the past month), my "Preview" article next week may be absent or at most very short. I apologize for this, and will definitely do my ACC game predictions for the week, but I'm not expecting to write a lot about how VT is going to easily win against a unknown program.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

All Glory Comes From Daring To Begin: Week 1 Thoughts

Well that was slightly unexpected. I figured the Hokies would be able to handle the Mountaineers easily, but as the saying goes, it was almost too easy. Perhaps it was the inept offense we've experienced the past handful of years, or the slow starts that became a motif last season when we did actually have a great offense, but I wasn't expecting a full on dominate performance.

Not to say that everything was perfect on Saturday. The Lieutenant played very well for his first game as the starting QB without making any obvious or hurtful errors. His passing completion wasn't as high as many were probably hoping for, but there were also at least four drops that could have helped that number. Boykin had one that appeared to be dropped when he tried to turn for the extra YAC. Davis had another huge drop on a perfectly executed post route that could have gone for 6 had the catch been made. My first thought when that happened was that he has maybe fallen back into his old habit of having brick hands. Luckily he made up for that drop later.

David "The Jet" Wilson probably played the best and most consistent on the offensive side of the ball, which was to be expected given his output in spring and fall practice. His list of goals for the season were released later after the game, and I expect him to be able to attain all except two of them. 100 yards per game, break VT single-season/game rush records, 20 TDs, 0 fumbles, All American. The two that I feel possibly won't happen are the fumbles and the game record. Zero fumbles is a great mental goal, but nearly impossible to do with as many carries as he will get. The only reason I don't think he'll break Darren Evans' 253 yards in a game is the fact that the teams we play where he would most likely be capable to get that many yards, he'll probably be pulled early in the game due to score difference.

Defensively speaking, we're obviously very different (in a good way) from last year. It felt like we were watching Foster defenses of years past where we finished top-10, and teams had problems ever getting more than a couple first downs at a time. A shutout would have been great, but getting younger guys experience will prove to be more important in the future, so nothing to lose sleep over. Keeping their AA guys in check and not letting them get any big plays off the 1st team D shows the improvement between January and September. Depth might still be an issue if there are any injuries, but if both sides of the ball do their job and get the score lopsided in games we should, the experience for the backups will come quickly.

The most talked about negative from the game (besides Frank's womanly looking sunglasses) was the punting game. Clearly we're going to be giving a short field to any team that can hold us when we're inside our own 30. The glass-half-full side to that is hopefully we never have to worry about out kicking the coverage, and can let the ball drop to the turf or be fair caught and let the D do their job.

Look Around the ACC


Unofficially, I was 10-1 in my ACC predictions this week. Between some predictions I made in my ACC preview entry, a few games that were in a football pool I'm a part of, and all the gimme games against 1-AA teams, the only wrong guess I made was mistaking Duke for being capable of beating Richmond. Even though it's pretty cliche, I'll start to make weekly predictions for any game involving an ACC team and see how I fare at the end of the season.

Starting with the two ranked teams, FSU and VT did what they needed to in order to live up to their ranking. They may or may not be there at the end of the season, but they made it through Week 1 without anything happening that would make someone question their capabilities. Now they just need to continue to do it against teams that will actually challenge them.

The biggest surprises in a good way would be UVA's performance against W&M, and UNC's Bryn Renner's completion percentage against JMU. I'm not ready to say UVA will be a good or even bowl bound team this year, as their competition shouldn't challenge any BCS level team, but like FSU and VT, they didn't do much that would make their weaknesses obvious. Renner will obviously never have a game statistically like he did in his debut, but as far as confidence goes, he can ride this one for a few more weeks.

A lot is being talked about regarding the number GT put up in the passing game against WCU. Just looking at the stat sheet it should be commended, but actually watching it didn't sell me on it. In the first quarter, twice the Jackets threw a ball right off the snap to the wideout on the sideline, who then turned it up field for about 80 and then 70 yards respectively. Both times the Catamount defense took obvious horrible angles, and displayed poor tackling ability. There was an impressive post route that struck for a TD in the second half that I wouldn't have expected in years past. So I'm waiting for them to have a game where they put up those numbers against a team that fields capable defenders before I crown them as a balanced offense.

Even though they both won, Clemson and NC State I would say put on the worst performances in terms of potential and opponent. Most teams get a Week 1 pass, especially in terms of offense, but there was enough there in my opinion to warrant concern throughout at least the next month. The problems I saw may or may not lose them any games by themselves, but they won't be fixed in just a few more practices.

Miami and Maryland was easily the most entertaining game in the league this week, and one of the best of the whole weekend. Uniform opinions aside, the Terps looked fantastic on offense on every part of the field not called the red zone. Had O'Brien ran the ball instead of trying to force a TD pass for his stats, and had the receivers been able to hang on to the ball, the game could have been over by halftime. As much as I hate Miami, they played hard without giving up when they were down on the scoreboard, which says a lot about them as a team. In the past they never appeared to have the motivation to overcome adversity, and it would have been even easier Monday night with all the players missing due to suspension. Now I guess we'll see how they react after starting 0-2 (spoiler alert!).

Final Parting Shot


I'd like to take this part of my blog to dedicate solely to one of college football's most storied programs, to express to you how much I loathe the attention and respect you receive having done nothing to earn it in almost a decade. So Notre Dame Fighting Irish, I present to you this message, courtesy of a guest speaker we all know and love:

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Game One Preview: Alma Mater vs. Almost Alma Mater

Say that five times fast.

Finally...it begins

       

Hokie blood runs deep in my family. My father and step father both graduated from the university in the early 80's. My mother was just down the road at Radford. Even my great grandfather lived in Blacksburg my entire life until he passed away at the age of 99 a couple years ago. More impressive than how long he lived was the fact that he continued to go to many Hokie football and basketball games all the way up to and including some of his last years with us.

Some of my best memories as a child were going to the game on Saturday, followed by going over to my great grandparents after to spend time with them and other extended Hokie family. No one can make a twice baked potato as well as my great grandmom.

It was always my dream to follow in my father's footsteps and attend Virginia Tech, but in October of my senior year of high school plans started to change. Even with above average grades in high school, I wasn't convinced I would be accepted, and if I was, I knew how much money it would cost my parents for out of state tuition. I had visited Appalachian State with my best friend, and it became a plan early on for him, my girlfriend, and I to go to school together there.

In March of 2004, a few months before graduation, things appeared to be falling apart. My best friend had been accepted, but had to wait until Spring Semester to enroll. My girlfriend and I broke up, like many high school relationships do. Then another thing happened I hadn't planned on. An acceptance letter came from my dream school.

It wasn't an automatic decision to change my choice of college, but over the next few days it became clear it was what I was meant to do. If I wanted to start of my adult life right, and try my best to have no regrets, it started with the decision to go to the school I had always wanted, even though it meant leaving behind everything and everyone I was familiar with to do so.

Appalachian State Preview


The Mountaineers, in case you weren't aware, have been the most dominate 1-AA team over most of the last decade. Most know about their 3-peat of National Championships in the mid 2000's. Everyone knows about their upset of Michigan. (Ironically the only reason I was able to see this game, was because I was in a wedding the day it happened and had to miss the VT opener vs ECU, one of two home games I missed in my five football seasons at Tech.)

This year ASU is still expected to be one of the heavy favorites to contend for the 1-AA championship, and they look to try and knock off another top-15 team on the road to begin their journey. The biggest hurdle for them is the fact that JMU tipped off the Gobblers last year what 1-AA are capable of, so they won't have the element of surprise on their side.

On offense, the Mountaineers have a few big playmakers. QB DeAndre Presley stepped in for the infamous Armanti Edwards and was able to fill his shoes quite nicely in his first year as a starter.

(In a side note, is there any more proof of how horribly managed the Carolina Panthers are than how high they drafted Edwards? I mean he was good, and I understand wanting the local hero, but that pick was AT LEAST two, if not three, rounds too high. I digress.)

Presley's favorite target this year should be Brandon Quick, who many project to be the first 1-AA player selected in next year's draft. 6'5, 220 is a nice target for any qb to be throwing to, and he should be able to dominate most of the competition in their league. Unfortunately after Quick, the wideout situation becomes very thin, with their next two top receivers only accounting for seven receptions so far. I expect to see VT putting a lot of double coverage on Quick, and try to force the ball to ANYONE else.

Running back showcases another versatile player in Travaris Cadet. Like Quick, he's blessed with having a sweet last name. Oh, and he's also blessed with the ability to hurt defenses in a myriad of ways. He can run, he can catch,  he can throw, and he returns kicks. If ASU tries any trick plays throughout the game, which is almost a guarantee, look for him to be involved.

On defense, the 'Neers have more questions than answers however. After not being very effective in 2010, particularly against the run, Coach Moore has switched from a 4-3 base to a 3-4. Without any film of this, it is hard for me (who isn't great with the X's and O's) to know what to expect, but even the VT coaches this week have said they don't know either. No matter what though, expect VT to try and use David Wilson's speed to counter any defensive assignments, along with spreading out the passing game to the plethora of capable receivers the Hokies are blessed with this year.

The biggest treat for college football fans in this game will actually be off the 120 x 55 1/3 yard playing field. Frank Beamer and Jerry Moore are two of the best coaches at their respective levels and programs. They're the kind of coach you expect to put their team in the best situation to win, no matter the opponent. They are separated by only fourteen career wins (240 for Frank, 226 for Jerry) and by only one at their current schools (198 for Frank, 199 for Jerry). These are the kind of coaches you don't see much these days. Coaches who not only love where they work, but where there is equal love coming back at them from their employers and fans.

When all is said and done I expect the score to be a little lopsided, but the Mountaineers might be able to keep it close for the first couple quarters if their offense is able to strike quick and early before defenses get settled down. While ASU obviously wants to win, the reality is they play these games for the exposure, the paycheck, and preparation for their lesser competition down the road in an attempt to bring the National Championship trophy back to Boone. And after this game, I'll be rooting for them all the way, just as if I had been given the wonderful opportunity to spend 4-5 of the greatest years of my life there.

Score Prediction: Gobblers: 38, Mountaineers: 14

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!