Game 13 Preview: The Rematch (For All The Marbles)

Your new hit single from Taylor Swift. For real girl, just stop dating whoever your instinct tells you to; you're always wrong.

Wow, two sentence in and I've already wandered off the beaten path. What was I supposed to talk about again?

Oh yea, that game we always win then get a ring from. After this year, when our staff has one hand full of rings, do you think they'll show up next fall with one arm looking like the Terminator, and the other arm looking like Christian Bale in "The Machinist"?

I should start this preview with a confession. As sports fans, a lot of us can be superstitious. We think that if we wear a certain shirt, or drink a certain beer, or whatever before a game, it will be the good luck charm that pushes our team to victory. Well I don't have any rituals that I do before or during every game, but I do have a bit of a streak going on.

I am 0-for-lifetime at Hokie neutral field games. This list includes the '99 National Championship, '05 Sugar Bowl, '05 ACC Championship, '06 Chick-fil-A Bowl, '08 Orange Bowl, '08 Season Opener in Charlotte, '09 Season Opener in Atlanta, and '11 Orange Bowl. And to get to the point, yes, I will be at the game on Saturday. (On the flip side of this, I've been to A LOT more away games, with the only loss I've witnessed was the beatdown at LSU)

So if the Hokies lose to Clemson again (I was also at the first meeting), we can all just blame me. 

With the exception of the temperature, this game is almost the exact opposite of the last one. The Hokies are the talk of the town, coming in with a long winning streak, a dynamic young quarterback, and the confidence to go up against almost anyone. The downside to this is it doesn't mean jacksh*t if we are to lose. It won't matter that we'll still be the highest ranked ACC team, or have the best conference record, because we won't be the ACC Champion. *flashbacks of 2005*

Clemson Wins If

1. Uncle Sam Returns

Sammy Watkins is one of, if not the most dynamic freshman in college football this year. It is no coincidence that this losing streak by the Tigers happened at the same time he's been injured. There are a lot more problems during these past four games than what he could have fixed by himself, but he can be a difference maker. In the first game against Tech, he was held to 4 rushing, and 38 receiving yards. The Tigers didn't need him to win that night, but they probably will if they hope to win again this week.

2. Boyd Stops Throwing To The Wrong Team

After starting 6-0, with wins over multiple ranked teams, Tajh Boyd looked like the best kept secret in college football. He had a completion percentage over 60%, and a 11-1 TD:INT ratio. During the losses of the past month, he has thrown 6 interceptions, 5 of which came when the Tigers were losing. With the Hokie offense rolling, it is almost a given they will score more than 3 points this game, and a strong possibility that the Tigers will have to play from behind. Which Boyd will show up with the big game on the line?

3. The Hokies Left All Their Mojo in Charlottesville

The Hokies played their first complete game of the year last Saturday. So while frustrating, it wouldn't be surprising to see a quarter or two of sub-par performance from their offense. We saw what happens when the Hokies play four quarters, and what has happened when they play zero. Clemson needs help outside their own players to win this one, and we'll see on Saturday which Hokie offense shows up.

Virginia Tech Wins If

1. Defense Abuses a Battered Offensive Line

It is almost a nationwide joke about how Jekyll and Hyde Clemson is every year. There will be games when they look like they're a top tier SEC team, and then games when they'd be lucky to beat the Citadel. Usually this problem can be attributed to a bad offensive line. Right now the Tigers have a bad offensive line. Now this has been caused by injuries up front, so unlike other years it isn't completely the team's fault. Fortunately college football doesn't play with a handicap, so they don't get any special treatment for being injury prone. I'm sure Gayle, Hopkins, and company will be more than happy to give their players in the backfield some extra love and attention though.

2. Wilson Sets Records

David "The Jet" Wilson only needs 61 more rushing yards to break Ryan Williams' single season rushing record of 1,655. He also only needs 204 yards to set the ACC single season rushing record of 1,798. The first is likely, while the second is a stretch in this game. If he does run for 200+ yards however, I can all but guarantee a Hokie victory just from that one box score stat. This Clemson defense is 92nd in the country against the run, and gave up 123 yards (but no touchdowns) to DW in the first meeting. Good luck trying to stop him this game.

3. The Lieutenant Keeps His Confidence

I don't need to explain to you fine people how awesome Thomas the Tank Engine is. If you want to watch any of his amazing highlights this year, just pick any game. Except the Clemson game. That was the first game for Logan and the Hokies this year in front of a primetime, national audience. He only had 125 yards passing, and 8 yards rushing if you factor in getting sacked four times. He has admitted openly to the media that he was nervous and not under control that game. Since that game he has been near perfect, and with the past three games being national, spotlight games, there is no reason to believe that this game will do anything to unnerve him.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 35   Tigers 17

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Week 13 Predictions

Gimme Games
N/A

Upset Watch
VT over UVA
NCSU over Maryland
UNC over Duke
Miami over BC

50/50 Games
UGA over GT
SCAR over Clemson
Vandy over Wake
FSU over Florida

Game 12 Preview: Gotta Do Everything Our-Damn-Selves

Really Florida State? You were a preseason top-5 team and you couldn't even beat UVA at home, in a night game? Here's a hint to all the recruits that don't read my blog: Just because you're talented out of high school, and pick a school that gets a lot of airtime on ESPN, doesn't just give you wins at this level. But I suppose it doesn't matter, because win or lose they'll still talk about your team, even though you haven't been relevant in a decade.

Rant over.

Really UVA? You won't just go away will you? It doesn't matter that you've been bitch slapped by your in-state rivals longer than FSU hasn't been relevant. Your biggest goal this year was to go to a bowl game, and now you're playing in the divisional championship. At home no less. With your momentum, this should be a guaranteed upset. I mean, who hasn't won when they were in this exact position in the past?

Oh that's right, you guys.

I would honestly be more afraid of the upset if this game didn't mean anything. If you were just another 4-7 team that we had nothing to gain from beating, I could see us taking one on the chin. But now you're playing in our league. We play for championships. We're the consistent team that has dominated this conference since the day we joined. When we're focused and ready, good luck stopping us with your handful of players whose parents might know their name, but no one else.

But for the sake of argument, we'll look at the keys for both teams.

Virginia Tech Wins If


1. Thomas the Tank Engine Keeps on Trucking
The Lieutenant has been almost unstoppable since the loss against Clemson in early October. A few bad passes against Duke has given him the only two interceptions he has thrown in the past six games. And don't get me started about his punishing running ability, because just like him, if I start I can't be stopped. If it is a short yardage situation, he should just be given a first down at this point. Last week, Logan himself said he would like if UVA beat FSU, so that this game would mean more. Part of that was being PC because he knows we play UVA and not FSU, but most of that is being a true competitor. Watch for big plays from the big guy all day long.

2. Get Pressure on Rocco
Earlier this year, UVA tried using a two-qb system due to a promise made by new coach Mike "Whatever It Takes to Get You Here" London. He promised true freshman David Watford playing time if he came to UVA, and was true to his word early on. Since he reneged on that promise, UVA has won four straight. Rocco has been solid, but he's far from perfect. Most of the passes are high percentage, which requires discipline and accountability from the front-7 on defense. Try to make Rocco force something, and let our secondary do their job.

3. Show Up
Now I don't mean that all they have to do is be on the field at game time and the game is over. And we're not one of the five best teams in the country right now. But there is a reason the Hokies are ranked that high. They're good. They do their job. And they don't lose often; especially in November, or on the road, or against UVA. With all things being fair, Virginia Tech should win this game the vast majority of the time they play it. The team's biggest problem this year is consistency for an entire four quarters. If they show up for at least three, but especially if it's for all four, then this should be a tune up to another ACC Championship.

Virginia Wins If


1. Unleash Fluffy
For those of you with a life, Fluffy is the name of the three-headed dog in Harry Potter. Today I am using it to refer to the tandem of running backs for UVA. The name just fit to me for some reason. Having a productive, power running game can help win lots of games. It helps control the clock, tires out the defense, maybe even frustrates them enough to make a dumb decision. The Hokies are no slouch against the run though. Whoever wins this battle up front will go a long way in determining the score at the end of the game.

2. Forces 4th Downs
UVA is very effective in stopping teams from converting 3rd downs. VT is very good at picking up 3rd downs, especially in short yardage situations. Third down is the biggest chance for momentum changes. Stay on the field and keep them tired. Come up short and you give them the ball back, or best case scenario settle for a field goal. 3rd down is also the perfect opportunity to have LT size someone up and run them over. Can't say I wouldn't enjoy watching him take down as many of their players as possible in his first of three matchups against this team.

3. Hell Freezes Over
There is this place that many people believe that you go to after death if you lived a bad life called Hell. This place is filled with all the evil, bad things you can imagine, and one of its motifs is it is very hot. I mean we're talking fire, lava, molten rock, the whole shebang. And even though I'm not a scientist, I have found that in life, heat always beats cold when the two lock horns. So this would make it very improbable that a place like hell could ever be overwhelmed by cold to the extent that the entire underworld could become encased in ice. We're talking about odds that look like 1 out of the digits of pi (you have to remove the decimal for this joke to make logical sense of course).

We are Virginia Tech, and beating UVA in football is what we do.

Score Prediction: Gobblers: 33  Pretenders: 21


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Week 12 Predictions

After deciding to not play the 4th quarter, the Hokies still pulled out the victory on Thursday night. Now all that is left our favorite post-Thanksgiving dessert: beating the Wahoos the Saturday after Turkey Day.

How big that game will be this year will partially be determined by the outcome of their game today, so let's take a look at all the games across the conference this week.

Gimme Games

Notre Dame over Boston College

Upset Watch

VT over UNC

GT over Duke

FSU over UVA

Miami over USF

Clemson over NC State

50/50 Games

Wake Forest over Maryland

No upsets predicted this week, but one possible blowout. Notre Dame ends their mini-ACC tour with the Eagles, after already taking down the Deacs and Terps in consecutive weeks. If the Irish had scheduled Duke instead of Wake Forest (not that WF is a major step up in skill) they would have played the bottom 3 ACC teams this year, and are probably bragging about their dominance. Don't worry ND, all of us free thinkers know you're just posing to be the team and program that you once were. Have fun beating all the bottom feeders.

Now that the day of the game is here, let me say how happy I am we didn't lose to the Jackets, therefore making this game actually matter. I don't really see any way that the Devils pull this upset, although the combined score of both teams may be high. Without any chance of going to a bowl game this year, Duke may leave it all out on the field next week against their cross-town rivals, but today I don't see the emotion being there to win against a superior opponent.

Last year, USF beat in-state rival Miami to end the regular season, which was just one of many disappointing losses to the Canes. Technically Miami hasn't even reached bowl eligibility yet, but with the Bulls today, and the Eagles next week, it's probably just a matter of time. How crazy would it be if Miami wasn't even able to get to a bowl game this year. Lots of people are predicting no bowls for a few years after sanctions come down, but nobody thought it would be possible if they only had to win 6 games.

Clemson hasn't looked as dominant over the last handful of weeks, but they're still 9-1 and #7 in the BCS. This has trap game feel to it, as NC State hasn't looked great at all this year, sans UNC game, and top-15 SEC in-state rival is on the docket next week. After needing to rally to beat Maryland and Wake Forest, we'll find out how good of a gameday coach Dabo really is. If this team can come out and take care of business today, then we'll see if they'll be ready for the Cocks next weekend.

The big game of the weekend is of course the Hoos and the Noles. UVA needs the win to stay alive in the Coastal Division race, but the Noles have been playing as they were advertised preseason the past couple weeks. If this was a home game for Virginia, I would entertain the option of the upset. But regardless of what Zima is being consumed by their fanbase, we live in the real world. In that world it says that UVA has over-performed this year, and eventually reality will come crashing back down. Right now they have dreams of ACC Championship Games dancing in their head, but in 8 short days they could be just another 7-5 team going to a crappy bowl game.

Oh and Maryland loses again this week.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Game 11 Preview: Virtue Tech vs. UNCheat

In my very first article that I wrote for this blog, I discussed the seemingly rampant pattern of cheating that had taken place at a triage of schools in the ACC. Not to say that it was Virginia Tech's fault, but it was the three teams in their division that are most likely to compete for their spot in the ACC Championship game year in and year out.

Georgia Tech did something nobody is going to remember, and won a conference championship. Miami did it with their usual South Beach style, receiving a lot of air time on all the sports talk shows when the news hit, but nothing in the win column. UNC also has nothing to show for their sins, but their program has been deemed not relevant enough to warrant any real national exposure, even though it's easily the worst, or at least most widespread problem we've seen at any of the college scandals in the past few decades.

It wasn't just players taking benefits. Nor was it only rogue coaches doing things (or kids) that they shouldn't have been. Academic integrity, or lack thereof, was only a small percentage of their crimes on Santa's Naughty List. This was clearly a program and institution who thought they were important enough, or just untouchable with one of their own running the conference, to feel that they could bend the rules in every area of the game and get away with it. And for this, and not just my own personal disdain, I hope that the NCAA punishes them accordingly, and not just to the level that they feel will be acceptable by the general public who doesn't really care.

Now that I've got all that off my chest, I suppose I should talk about the game.

UNC Wins If

1. Defense steps up

Running against this defense has been a chore for many teams this season. They barely give up a field's length worth of yards on the ground a game, but they're going up against the leading rusher in the league. If they can shut down Option A for the Hokies, and make them one dimensional, it won't guarantee anything, but it will make things easier for them. The Hokies have also shown that they can be inconsistent on offense, so if they get stopped early, it will help the Heels' ability to keep the game and momentum on their side.

2. Offensive Balance

Normally when you speak of a typical UNC team, offense is usually average at best. This year is no different, but they do have two capable young players who can go off at any game. QB Bryn Renner and RB Giovani Bernard have shown they can individually frustrate defenses if they get going early. Renner has one of the best completion percentages in the league, while Bernard has a great combination of size and speed. It seems like a given the Hokie D will dominate this pedestrian offense, but we thought the same thing last time they were in Blacksburg.

3. Win the Turnover Battle

This sounds obvious, and one of the keys for almost any game, but here is the importance in this matchup. Renner does have a high completion rate, but he also has a number of interceptions thrown. He has been pressured a high number of times this season, and when that happens there is usually a sack or a pick. On the other side of this, the Hokies have also had their problem with INTs when their young QB is pressured. David Wilson, who wanted to not have any fumbles all year, has had his moments of butterfingers this year. Which side takes care of the ball better will go a long way in determining the outcome, especially if the Heels have more takeaways than giveaways.

Virginia Tech Wins If

1. Keep the Defense Rested

As I mentioned earlier, the Tar Heels have a hard time when their QB doesn't have a lot of time to make smart decisions. In the past five games, he has been sacked 14 times. And of course sometimes a "hurry up" is better than a sack when it's a team that has problems with giving the other team the ball. As long as there aren't a number of long drives, this team has the speed and ability on defense to frustrate any offense this side of the Mississippi. 

2. Don't Look Ahead

Even though every coach and player will tell you all the right things in interviews, everyone knows that winning this game doesn't matter as far as winning the division goes. They can possibly clinch the division with a win, but regardless of any of the possible outcomes between this and the FSU/UVA game, all it takes is a win in Charlottesville to get back to Charlotte. The last time this team was in a similar situation at Duke, they fell into the classic trap game mentality. This game should be different, as it is at home, Senior Night, and a slight revenge game from two years ago. Also if we want to take this further than just looking ahead to next week, the players should know that if we're looking ahead to every season in the foreseeable future, if they want orange jerseys/uniforms to be a possibility under Beamer ever again, they cannot lose in tomorrow's apparel.

3. Home Crowd A Factor

Thursday night is going to be a cold one in Blacksburg. Sometimes it is hard for most people to get jacked up for a 6-4 opponent in this type of weather. What needs to pointed out though is that UNC is only 1-3 on the road this year. I'm sure no one on their team will say it was because they were on the road, but they're 5-1 at home, so it has to be a factor to some degree. More importantly than just the opponent, is the fact it is the last home game of the year. Most of us obsess over this team year round, and those nine months of the offseason makes us really appreciate those 6-7 games a year we're at home. Sometimes we forget about that on a cold night in November against a middle-of-the-pack conference team. 

But something we should never forget is that for a handful of these players, it will be the last game they ever play at Lane Stadium, and possibly anywhere. They have given up most of their time, their bodies, their youth, and much more to this sport and this program, so that those of us who sit on couches, or behind computer screens nit-picking everything they do, can go out with a smile on our face the next day because they won a game. They deserve a lot, and while some of them will receive a paycheck at the next level for an undetermined amount of time, the least they deserve is our respect and appreciation. If you are one of the lucky 66,233 people who can attend this game in person, you need to be there early and late to show these young mean what they mean to all of us, win or lose.

But neither they nor I am planning on losing.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 31   Cheaters 14

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Week 11 Thoughts

I don't know about the rest of you, but every year after the Georgia Tech game, win or lose, I feel like there is a huge weight lifted off the shoulders of the football team and us fans. They're the type of team, that no matter if you're more or less talented in a given year, they're going to be a problem. Their style of play requires more preparation than any other game you'll probably play, and once it's over, you're glad you can just forget about it for another year.

Having said that, I feel a lot better about our chances against them the next couple years at the very least. The Hokies played with probably the youngest and possibly smallest front seven that has ever beaten the Jackets, and should only get better from here. Jack Tyler gets the biggest shoutout from me, because while even though he had a dumb mental mistake early in the 3rd quarter, his ability to play against this type of defense with almost zero game experience shows how well focused and coached he and this team is.

As I said in my keys to the game for a Hokie victory, we didn't need a shutout, just enough stops to have the opportunity to capitalize on offense. That is exactly what happened. After giving up a touchdown on their first drive, we held them scoreless until a last second field goal to end the 2nd quarter, which seemed like a mental lapse not expecting them to come out firing with less than a minute on the clock. After giving up 13 more points to start the 3rd quarter, the defense once again buckled down, and didn't allow even a threat of a score from the Jackets. The big stand came on 3rd and 2, then 4th and 1, allowing the offense to raise the lead from one to eight.

As is usually the case, many were afraid of another lethargic showing from the offense. After getting into GT territory twice early, and having to punt both times, it looked like this may be another game where the coulda/shoulda/woulda would fill the message boards for how close we could have been to winning. Luckily after those two drives, the offense came out to one of its best showings of the season.

Another one of my keys regarding the offense was to spread the ball out to all its playmakers. David Wilson went buck wild for a career high in yards. Logan hit three different receivers for touchdowns. DJ Coles came up with a big catch on a 3rd and long, which was long because of a false start on him on 3rd and medium. Even Oglesby had his moments in relief of DW to help move the chains. And of course The Lieutenant was an unstoppable force anytime he wanted to go forward.

Next on the docket we have the Tar Heels of UNCheat, with what should be a hyped, albeit freezing cold, home crowd on Thursday. Last time the Heels visited, also on a Thursday night, we were upset in a game I'll never forget having to leave. I'm a huge hater of the Tar Heels, and not only had I invited a UNC friend of mine, but I was also living in Chapel Hill at the time. Luckily I moved down to Florida two weeks later, so I didn't have to put up with any crap for too long.

Across the ACC


I suppose we should start with Clemson this week as they're the first team to punch their ticket to Charlotte. After giving up 21 straight 3rd quarter points to go down by two touchdowns to Wake Forest, the Tigers settled down, and with a little bit of help from the refs, kicked a game winning field goal as time expired. It's still unknown if the ACC will get its dream matchup of two 11-1, top-10 teams, but Clemson and their fans being at the ACCCG is probably best case scenario from a selling point. A Clemson/VT matchup, regardless of records and rankings, will be a rocking time in Charlotte.

The only team at this point who can break up what will probably be the best ACCCG game in history, is UVA. After putting away Duke late (really Duke, how many dropped passes can you have in one game when that's supposed to be your only strength?) the Wahoos are still in control of their own destiny in their division. If they can upset the Noles on the road this weekend, then the Commonwealth Cup won't be the only thing on the line the Saturday after Thanksgiving. That's asking a lot, but you never know in this conference.

Boston College and NC State played about as boring a game as you would expect from those two. The Pack had many opportunities to try and win with a late touchdown, but the Boston College defense did a remarkable job at playing for pride in front of the home crowd, and walked away the victory. Many people will talk about FSU being the most disappointing team in the conference this year because of their pre-season ranking, but if you go by fanbase feelings at the end of the year, I think NCSU would get my vote for this "honor". The lone highlight for them this year was shutting out rival UNC, but besides that, there isn't much for them to be happy about this year.

FSU and Miami had a pretty entertaining game that was ruined by the worst reffing job of the day in the ACC, which is saying A LOT. Even though neither team was playing for anything except what mid-tier bowl they'll be going to, the players appeared to be playing for a lot more. There were hard hits, lots of trash talking, and some pretty good plays throughout the game. FSU winning never seemed in doubt, but Miami got it close enough to keep the game on my main tv until the very end. I'm a big fan of that matchup being an opening season game, because you can only imagine how much better the game could have been if there was something to play for.

And Maryland played and lost.


Week 11 Predictions: 5-1
November Predictions: 8-3
October Predictions: 24-7
September Predictions: 31-8
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 63-18


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Week 11 Predictions

Not to take away too much from my future "Weekly Thoughts" article, but damn what a fine game our Hokies played Thursday night. It was a moment for them to step up and defend their reputation in the conference and they did just that. It's a beautiful thing to watch these Hokies in November.

And now that we get another free Saturday to sit back and watch the rest of the country battle it out, let's take a look at what the ACC has in store for us this week. While there are technically only four teams left who can contended for a spot in Charlotte, and possibly only three after today, these are the weeks we'll see who has the pride to compete for a better bowl game.

Once again, the games will be broken up into probable blow outs, potential upset alerts, and games too close to call.

Gimme Games
Notre Dame over Maryland

Upset Watch
Clemson over Wake Forest
NC State over Boston College

50/50 Games
FSU over Miami
UVA over Duke
VT over GT

While I try to watch every ACC game I can, I can probably skip the Terps this week. Notre Dame isn't to the elite level most of their fan base and Lou Holtz always believe they are, but Maryland couldn't beat themselves in a scrimmage right now. Since there isn't much I can say interesting about the actual game, I'll take this time to say congrats to Frank Beamer on his tying and eventual passing of Lou Holtz on the all-time wins list. I doubt The Frankinator will go into broadcasting when he retires, but at least we would understand what he was saying if he did.

The only game this week that has any bearing on who goes to the ACCCG will be the Atlantic Division matchup between the Deacs and Tigers. If Clemson wins they secure their spot in Charlotte, while the Deacs could put themselves in a great position if they can pull of the epic upset. Wake Forest has shown they can take down a team with superior talent when they beat FSU earlier this year, but Clemson will be looking to avenge their only loss of the season. Say what you will about Dabo, and I agree I don't think he is one of the elite coaches in D-1 ball, but he'll at least make sure his players head are on straight.

And the award for the conference game with least appeal outside their fanbases goes to the Pack and Eagles. First off I don't think Boston College actually has enough fans to make up a whole base of them, and NCSU still hasn't figured out that they're the little brother of the Triangle that nobody notices unless they're playing one of their big bros. State gets bowl eligible with the win, and should barring a turnover and penalty plagued game.

I'll be honest about something. We've been used to seeing the college football season start with the Sunshine State rivalry (is there an actual name for this game? I mean besides Wide Right?), and since that wasn't the case this year, and since once again neither team can win their division, I completely forgot this game was being played. Both teams annually get two of the top recruiting classes nationally, so this game could be an amazing watch if they both show up for bragging rights. FSU gets the slight edge from me in talent, and a much bigger edge in terms of team mentality. I'm not sure what it will take for Miami diehards and players to realize that swagger left town once Ohio State walked away with the crystal ball, but losing to UVA two seasons in a row should have been the final slap in the face to knock them back to reality.

I realized as I started to talk about this last game that earlier I said there was only one game determining who goes to Charlotte. Then I remembered UVA is still technically in it. I could have gone back and edited my previous paragraph, but UVA is only in it based on a world of math and not reality. Duke has been the biggest thorn in the Cavs' side the past few seasons, and another loss to them would all but put the finishing move on their divisonal championship dreams. Of course I have picked UVA to win this game if you paid attention earlier, but that was just playing the odds. The truth is I see UVA winning this game, their fans getting hyped about FINALLY beating the Devils, and then FSU just kicking the sh*t out of them next weekend. It is impressive what UVA has done this year, but only based on what the expectations were.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Game 10 Preview: De Facto Divisional Decider

In a divisional alignment that was intended to showcase many FSU vs Miami conference championship games, the Coastal Division has been dominated by the Techs. Not only that, but the division representative has always been the winner of the matchup between these two schools. Here is how it has broken down since the conference expanded in 2004:

  2004: #22 VT: 34  GT: 20; Virginia Tech wins ACC (no divisions/championship game)

  2005: #4 VT: 51  GT: 7; Virginia Tech loses to FSU in ACC Championship

  2006: #11 VT: 27  GT: 38; Georgia Tech loses to Wake Forest in ACC Championship

  2007: #11 VT: 27  GT: 3; Virginia Tech beats Boston College in ACC Championship

*2008: VT: 20  GT: 17; Virginia Tech beats Boston College in ACC Championship

*2009: #4 VT: 23  #19 GT: 28; Georgia Tech beats Clemson in ACC Championship

*2010: #20 VT: 28  GT: 21; Virginia Tech beats FSU in ACC Championship

*indicates Paul Johnson/Triple Option era

While this streak is rather impressive, it has also led to the conference champion the past four seasons; GT technically didn't win it in 2009 due to NCAA infractions, but that doesn't matter for the point being made here.

If Georgia Tech wins on Thursday, all they need to do to get to Charlotte is beat Duke, and have UVA lose one of their last three games against either Duke, FSU, or VT; very likely.

If Virginia Tech wins on Thursday, all they need to do is beat UVA, or beat UNC with UVA losing to either Duke or FSU; also likely.

But the one common denominator for both teams is to win Thursday night in ATL. Here are the keys for both teams in reaching that goal.

Georgia Tech Wins If

1) Control the clock with long, sustained drives.

Both the Gobblers and Bumblebees are towards the top of the national rankings when it comes to Time of Possession. Something will have to give for this game. GT's bread and butter is to cause their opponents' "death by a thousand cuts". They will gladly, especially with a lead in the second half, keep running their option plays that will get at least 4-5 yards a play, never having to throw, and always picking up a first down. More often than not it will get them points, tire out the defense, and eat up a bunch of clock.

2) Keep the Hokie O from getting in a rhythm

Al Groh has been the butt of jokes from the VT faithful for his inability to beat and compete with the Hokies in almost all facets of the game during his last years at rival UVA. Last season he became the DC at GT and brought his patented 3-4 defense with him. Last year a defense that was struggling up to that point did a good job at holding the Hokie offense to just 21 points (not counting DW's kickoff return). This year the defense isn't stellar by any means, but Groh's knowledge of VT tendencies and our own inconsistency could lead to another long (or short if we're going by drive length) night for the Gobblers.

3) Keep the ball away from/contain David Wilson

The GT defense isn't great, and their run defense is a big part of that. In the games the Hokies have struggled on offense, it has been due to getting away from the run too much. If GT comes up with a gameplan to contain DW when he gets the ball in the backfield, and makes sure to kick away from him on kickoffs, it will take a lot of pressure off of them. While this team is capable of spreading the ball to a number of receivers and putting up a lot of passing yards, I'm sure the Yellow Jackets would rather take their chances with that than the guy who beat them in the 4th quarter last year.

Virginia Tech Wins If

1) Comes out aggressive from the opening kick

The last time these two teams met in ATL, Virginia Tech looked like they should easily win by putting up huge numbers against a poor statistical defense, but only had 3 points at halftime. Then in the second half the GT offense kept a tired defense on the field, and didn't allow enough possessions for a Hokie comeback. The same might have been said about the game last year had Nesbitt not been injured resulting in a stagnant second half offense. The key to beating this offensive style is to force them to pass the ball by forcing them to play from behind.

2) A young and undersized defense stepping up

As Chris Coleman of TechSideline pointed out in his preview article, the starting front 7 for the Hokie D are all r-sophomores or younger. They are also much smaller than you would like for those 7 to be in order to get between the gaps. Hopefully what they lack in size is made up for in speed. Some size was lost due to injury to Hopkins, and some speed was lost also to injury to Tweedy. These are the kind of games where young players can make a name for themselves by stepping up and filling in roles some may think they can't. We're not asking for a shutout, just enough stops to give the offense a chance to score more.

3) Get the ball to their many playmakers

While David Wilson might be the best player to knife through the GT defense, he isn't the only one who can hurt them. The 3-4 defense has in the past given the Hokies problems, but this team has played enough 3-4 defenses this year to know what they can and can't do against it. Hopefully the gameplan starts with a lot of David Wilson, but whether or not that is effective, there needs to be a healthy dose of read option, and getting the ball to our plethora of receivers. It is unlikely that this will be a game where both teams will score less than 2-3 touchdowns, and the mindset for the coaches and players should be to give themselves the best chance to score as often as possible.

While the allure of Virginia Tech on a Thursday night game has gone down over the past few seasons, this game is one that will be great to have in primetime in front of a national audience. It is essentially a play-in game to the conference championship, and should be a great game to watch for everyone (not counting the fans of the team who ends up losing).

There are a couple other intangibles in the Hokies favor. Virginia Tech is 24-2 in the month of November since joining the ACC. Both of those losses came to Miami. The Gobblers also have an 11 game win streak on the road. Only five other teams, for a total of six times, have had a streak of 12 or more since 1995. This is a good program both on the road, and late in the year when wins matter. On paper it looks like our depleted defense may be the difference in who wins this game, but as always, In Beamer We Trust.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 31  Bumblebees 28

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 10 Predictions

First "Bye Week" for the Hokies, and it couldn't have come at a better time. Not only are we about to play the most important game of the season thus far, but until the post season rolls around, be it ACC Championship and/or bowl game, it will be the most important game of the season. The winner of the "Battle of the Techs" has gone on to represent the Coastal Division every year, and it's about 99% certain that the same will be the case this year.

But that game isn't for another week, so I don't want to peak my excitement too soon. I never wrote down any thoughts after the Duke game, but I guess I'll just chalk it up to the same lethargic energy that the Hokies showcased on Saturday. Maybe there has been something in the water on the east coast. I could yell about how closely they were playing with fire, or I could try to spin it into an overly optimistic cover-up. My honest opinion though is it was a trap game that also came at the end of eight straight weeks of play. Then the team played to that script perfectly. That's my grand analysis. Moving on.

Gimme Games
None

Upset Watch
FSU over Boston College
Maryland over UVA
UNC over NC State
Miami over Duke
Notre Dame over Wake Forest

50/50 Games
None

If Florida State plays like they did a week ago, this could be one of those Thursday night games ESPN wish they hadn't scheduled so far in advance. Of course it isn't ESPN's fault that Boston College has been cursed with more injuries, and therefore losses, than most teams in the country. Just because it isn't ESPN's fault though, that won't help pick up the ratings. After last week however, and the fact that this is still the ACC, anything can happen.

Maryland might be my vote for biggest disappointment in the conference this year. I've said it before, and perhaps had they not upset Miami in Week 1 I wouldn't feel the same, but I don't understand what has happened to the Terps since then. And while we're on the topic of disappointments, let's talk about UVA after big wins. Last year it was the downfall after the Miami win, then this year it was the loss following a GT upset. Until they prove they can win consistently, I'm picking against the Hoos after a big win.

UNC and NC State might be the game of the week in the conference, which is part me being a homer for my home state (even though I don't care about either team) and partly because there are no great games in the ACC this week. Ever since UNC thought they would be as relevant in football as they are in basketball with the hiring of Butch Davis, the Pack has won every year. We'll see if that trend can continue or not this Saturday.

Both Duke and Miami are coming off disappointing losses, but for different reasons. Duke wanted to get that big win to define where the program wants to go. Miami didn't want to lose to a team like UVA for the second straight year, on their home field, in front of a national audience. And they thought the Shapiro mess was embarrassing. Miami should win this one easily with talent, but Duke has the desire that a team with too much talent sometimes lacks. It wouldn't be as big as taking down the Hokies would have been, but a win against "Da U" would be a good win for this team.

How many people are going to watch the thriller that will be Wake Forest against Notre Dame this Saturday at 8? Anyone who said yes to that is a liar. In fact the only reason I would believe an Irish fan who said yes is because of how far their heads are up their own asses still thinking they're a relevant program. After all the hype that is being created over the LSU/Bama matchup, that game can only come up short of expectations, but it will still be more enthralling than any scenario that can play out between the Deacs and Irish. Not to mention the fact that even if the "Game of the Century" is lacking, there will be another top-15 matchup, and a top-10 game being played as well. Even though no one will see or care, it would make me ecstatic if the Deacs can pull of the upset.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Game 9 Preview: Basement Dwellers vs. Kings of the Mountain

While I don't think Duke is far and away the worst team in the ACC like there were when the league expanded in 2004, their reputation is what would make losing to Duke the hardest for many fans of top tier programs. I'll come out and say this out of full disclosure: I am in fact a Duke fan, second of course to the Hokies. I root for Duke in any game that they aren't playing the Hokies, or in any game where them winning doesn't hurt the Hokies in any way.

Growing up in North Carolina, it was almost an unwritten rule to have an in-state ACC team to root for, mostly in basketball, and Duke is who I picked as a kid. I see why many people dislike them, because it is mainly for the same reasons I dislike UNC: their fans. The big difference I find between the two is that UNC fans are Duke fans on steroids, for lack of a better metaphor. And for anyone who asks why I had to pick between Duke or UNC, and not NC State or Wake Forest, my answer would be I enjoyed watching my favorite teams win. Bandwagon, yes, but when you're a kid, and it's really just for second favorite, you might as well pick someone good (and also at the time I never expected the Hokies to be in the ACC).

I don't sugarcoat the fact that Duke isn't "Duke" in football. They aren't the cocky, self-righteous group that you may see in other sports. They do have the right guy in charge to try and get them to that next level. The fact that a bowl game was/is a possibility for this team says a lot about how far they've come over the past handful of years. All that being said, they are not where they need to be to beat a program like Virginia Tech, without a lot of help, some of which they are getting before the first kickoff.

Duke Offense

This is the one area that the Blue Devils can put in the "pros" column. At least their passing offense is a strength. Their run game isn't quite effective enough to make them a true threat against any team with a strong secondary.

Sean Renfree is one of those quality quarterbacks who would probably be a household name if he played for a top-50 team BCS team. He is a smart and accurate QB (almost 70% completion this season), and has lots of help around him. The dangerous "V's" in Vernon and Varner have been two of the top receivers since they were freshman, and defenses having to keep an eye out on two quality wideouts opens up even more options.

While the Duke running game hasn't been terribly effective this year, mostly due to injuries and a poor offensive line, their backs are good check down options for Renfree. I'm sure if they wanted to, the Blue Devils could send "The V's" down the field, and dump it off short a high percentage of the time and get as many if not more yards that they would get from a traditional run play. 

The biggest question mark when this unit is on the field will be how the depleted defense of the Hokies can hold up against the offense with potential to drive every time. The formations that Bud will draw up won't be exactly the ones he would use with a completely healthy defense. To make way for some of the inexperienced  players that will be out on the field, we may see more of a nickel package like we used last year. We'll see how often players like Nick Dew are in the game like he would if we used our traditional 4-3 D. And while nobody wants to lose a Bruce Taylor, I am looking forward to seeing if Barquell can bring back some of the magic he had a couple years ago before his injury.

Duke Defense

While Cutliffe has done a tremendous job recruiting some underrated offensive talent, he hasn't quite got the guys he'd like on the other side of the ball to complete against the big boys. This year showcases a lot of young faces, and while that may be a positive in a couple years, we don't play games in the future, but in the present.

Up front, Duke lost one of it's best players with DE Anunike hurting his knee and being lost for the remainder of the season. Hokie fans are sick of losing players every single week, but teams like Duke, and Boston College last week, are losing just as many players, and they don't have the depth to replace them in an effective manner like we do. We worry about a player without experience missing an assignment, or not hearing the communicated play correctly. Duke has to replace their injured guys with players who, no matter how smart they may be, aren't big or skilled enough to stop most teams.

One wrinkle you don't see often but will see on Saturday, is the fact that instead of a traditional 4-3-4, or 3-4-4, (or 3-3-5 if you're ass backwards cousin lovers) the Devils play a 4-2-5 scheme. I'm not an X's or O's kind of guy, but if I was building a defense, I would build around a solid linebacking corps, and would definitely want more than just two out on the field at a time. Even with just a couple out there at a time, Duke does have one of the best linebackers in the league in Kelby Brown. There should still be plenty of room over the middle for quick passes or runs.

Logan Thomas has been throwing his deep ball rather effectively this year, but we'll see how often that play is called with Duke playing two corners and three safeties on most plays. Most of these guys play a hybrid of two different positions depending on what the offense is doing, but there is a lot of inexperience at play. Cornerback Johnny Williams for example used to be a wide receiver. Due to the effectiveness of "The V's", as well as his speed and hands, he was moved to CB before last season. I would expect Duke to play a lot of zone, not expecting to be able to matchup man-to-man with the Hokies. That shouldn't be a big problem for the Hokies or The Lieutenant though, as he was very effective against the zone last week versus the Eagles.

I think Duke will be able to put up a couple touchdowns on the depleted Hokie D, but I also expected the Hokies to do the same in return, only in greater numbers. If the Hokie O decides to start slow again, this game could be closer into the second half than many would expect. I think it will be a good game for our young defensive players to get valuable playing time against a decent offense. 

In the end, an upset will be unlikely, but crazier things have happened in this league. Kind of like how the Canes always have one of the best recruiting classes, put the most players in the NFL, yet in between can't even beat UVA year in and out.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 35   Devils 17

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 9 Predictions

Thursday Night Edition!

For the second week in a row, all 12 ACC teams are in action this week, and every game is within the conference. Not every game will bear any factor over divisional races, at least not at the top of those races, but some of these games could be key this time next month. We're starting to get a feel for what to expect when most of these teams hit the field, but every week produces a surprise of some sort, so let's try to find out where there could be an upset or two.

Gimme Games
None

Upset Watch
VT over Duke
Miami over UVA
Clemson over Georgia Tech

50/50 Games
FSU over NC State
Boston College over Maryland
UNC over Wake Forest

The closest thing to a gimme game this week would have been VT/Duke had the Hokies been even close to completely healthy on defense, but alas we all know how that is going. Look for the preview article tomorrow for a more in-depth look as to how this game could play out.

Not counting State's embarrassing showing against Cincy this year, or Wake's unfortunate OT loss on opening night, this week will be the first true ACC showcase on ESPN's Thursday Night Football. I don't see this one being exciting enough to keep the viewers all game however. Hell, if I didn't have two TVs in my living room, and a sense of obligation to watch since it is ACC, I would probably watch something else too. UVA couldn't back up their signature win over an undefeated, ranked opponent with anything worthwhile, and Miami has surprising played better since being all but eliminated from the divisional race. Add in the fact that while Sun Life Stadium isn't a huge home field advantage, the Canes themselves will be looking for payback from last year.

Georgia Tech hasn't been playing well in the past two weeks, and Clemson hasn't Clemson'd out on us yet this year, so no reason to think the upset will occur here. It's always possible, and these two usually provide one of the better cross-divisional rivalry games each year, but it would take an almost perfect game by Georgia Tech to win in my opinion. The 8 o'clock national coverage could be a good chance for the Jacket faithful to get rowdy and loud by game time, and could be a good indication of what it may be like for the Hokies in a couple weeks. Of course if the Bumblebees lose a third straight and then have basically a week off before the matchup of the Techs, we'll see how supportive the fan base really is.

Easily the least important matchup this week will be Maryland and Boston College. Neither team can do anything at this point except maybe somehow win a game they're not supposed to and shake up the standings a bit, but this game on its own won't matter. Maryland has looked like crap (or some would say "like Maryland") since Week 1, and Boston College, while better than their record, is still 1-6. I do expect the Eagles to get their first conference win this week though.

NC State usually plays pretty well against the Noles, including last year's upset win that almost helped them win the division. This game will either be a dominant win by the Noles if they play to their potential, or at least play for pay back, or a close game if both teams come out lethargic like they know that the win won't help anything but possible bowl placement. If Jimbo wants to receive even half the credit he was getting between January and September before next season, he needs to get his team ready to play and win every remaining game, no matter how important it may be.

UNC and Wake Forest probably won't get mentioned much this week, but to me it will be a pretty interesting game. Wake Forest bounced back from their first ACC loss and beat in-state rival Duke, but now they want to take down the king of the state. Throw in the fact that UNC will have just returned from stating their case to the NCAA, and while no decisions regarding that will have been made, we'll see where the heads of the coaches and players for the Tar Heels are after that ordeal. Talent-wise UNC should win this game easily, but Wake Forest knows that unlike their opponent, they still control their own destiny in their division, but a second conference loss would require them to not only beat Clemson, but they would need someone else to beat the Tigers in conference as well.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 8 Thoughts

Well it was the worst of times, then it was the best of times. Once again the Hokie offense took a while to get going this past week, but once it started it couldn't be stopped. During the on-field post-game interview with The Lieutenant they asked him about what they changed at halftime, and besides getting the ball to Wilson more, he said they didn't really change anything.

Assuming that is true, I'm not sure how I feel about it. On the one hand it means that our offense can either be on or off, and it's not really in our control. On the other hand, he could just be talking in coachspeak and didn't want to give away any real strategy we used. I believe that The Jet only had four carries in the first half, which even if the passing game is running smoothly, is way too low.

I know that the coaches and the new playcaller are probably excited with the production out of the passing game compared to almost any year in the Beamer-era, but when you have a dynamic player like David Wilson, you give him the ball no matter what. And if the second half is any indication, staying truly balanced between run and pass will give this team a lot of success in scoring points.

Defensively we had a lot of success as well, sans the first short-field drive, especially considering how many backups we have to play now. And of course the injuries keep piling up for the Lunch Pail Crew, as Gayle re-injured himself on the first drive, and now we've lost Bruce Taylor for the year. Perhaps the reason Bud Foster has had so much success as a defensive coordinator is due to the fact he long ago sold his soul to the devil, and is possibly behind in his monthly payments, resulting in losing one or two players a week. It's the VIG that kills you.

Going up against Duke next week shouldn't be a problem, but you'd rather be short a handful of offensive guys, as their offense has the capability to make big plays and drive the field consistently. I still think that players who are on the edge of being healthy should sit out this one. Unless it gets to a point late in the game where it is actually close, and we've experienced trouble stopping them, this should just be one of those games we tell the young, inexperienced guys that this is their game.

Across the ACC


This is the first week all year I've gone perfect in my predictions. Ironically it came the week I said I was unsure about most of my picks. In the end I just went with my heart/head instead of over-thinking each matchup, and it apparently paid off.

Clemson once again looked scary good, as they put up more points than I can count to on one of the supposed best defenses in the conference. It's hard to tell if UNC is just hitting that mid-season lull do to all the offseason and off the field issues, or if they're just playing that many teams that are better than them. Either way, it's frustrating to watch how good Clemson is, and know that we did a good job against them defensively, and couldn't get just one or two touchdowns that would have made the game interesting.

Wake and Duke didn't have quite the shootout that I expected, and it was actually a pretty boring game. For most of the game I expected to see drive after drive, only to watch two teams seem to get in their own way. Wake Forest is the only real threat to Clemson ending up in Charlotte mathematically, but nothing short of a natural disaster hitting only South Carolina is going to derail them now. Just hopefully we're there to take care of them in Charlotte so we don't have to hear about how an undefeated ACC team was left out of the National Championship.

FSU whipped up on Maryland like they should have, so...yay? I'm not really sure what to say anymore about the Noles, because it doesn't really matter what they do the rest of the year, they'll be viewed as underachieving. Almost more embarrassing than FSU however is what Maryland has done after Week 1. I expected them to contend for the division for at least a little while this year, and after beating Miami it looked like they would pick up where they finished off last year. Now they've played six more games and have only won one.

While I did pick Miami to beat the Yellow Jackets, the fact that they gave up only 7 points is pretty impressive. The best way to prepare for the GT offense is to either have an extra week to prepare, or in Miami's case, have a very fast defense. The Hokies could have both in their favor, but we'll still probably need more than that depending on how many guys are still hurt in two weeks. Even though it has always been in their own hands, it is nice to see VT atop the Coastal Standings all by their lonesome.

Week 8 Predictions: 6-0
October Predictions: 20-5
September Predictions: 30-8
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 50-13


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 8 Predictions

No game preview article this week for a number of reasons: A change in my work schedule, release of Batman: Arkham City, couldn't think of a witty title for this week's opponent; all the usual reasons. There should be a lot of good games in the ACC, as well as all throughout the NCAA, but the Gobblers and Eagles won't be one of them. There will be a very brief analysis at the end.

Gimme Games
VT over Boston College

Upset Watch
Clemson over UNC
Florida State over Maryland

50/50 Games
Miami over Georgia Tech
NC State over UVA
Wake Forest over Duke

This might be the first week all season that I actually feel unsure about the majority of my picks. Part of that have to do with the individual matchups, and part of that is this is the ACC; anything can, and usually does, happen.

Mathematically speaking, the Coastal Division is a two team race right now with Techs in the lead, but UNC and Miami have an outside chance if they win out. Miami has a chance to help themselves today if they beat the Jackets, but that loss to the Hokies could come back to haunt them at the end of November. The truth is however that Miami is not consistent enough to really be a threat with the two early losses.

For UNC to keep their divisional hopes alive, they'd need to knock off the best team in the conference, in one of the hardest places to win in Death Valley. Then they would have to win the rest of their games, which includes a win in another tough place to win on a Thursday night in Lane Stadium. They've done it before, when they didn't even have anything to gain from it, so we'll see where they stand in a month.

FSU shouldn't have any problems against Maryland, but the Terps showed last week that they can at least try to outscore a tough opponent in a shootout. The Noles would need a lot of help besides just winning their own games to return to Charlotte, and that is looking less and less likely each week that Clemson continues to roll.

The only real threat to the Tigers right now is Wake Forest (still can't believe I'm saying that). After losing their first conference game last week, the Deacs still control their own destiny if they win out. They need to make sure they put last week behind them and take care of Duke if they want to continue to be in the race. That game might have the highest point total of any game in the conference this. Very similar to last week's Clemson/Maryland matchup.

This week the Hokies need to continue to be consistent on offense, as well as try to stay/get healthy on defense. Last year with a much less effective defense, the Gobblers got a shutout up in Chestnut Hill. I'm not sure they'll be able to get the goose egg again, but that's mainly due to the injuries and projected amount of time the backups will be in the game today. Without Montel Harris however, the Eagles won't be able to score enough to keep up with the Hokies.

David Wilson needs just under 100 yards to reach 1000 on the season, so look for that to happen today. If there is anybody who can try to turn the tide for the Eagles it is superstar linebacker Luke Kuechly. He is the anchor of that defense, but we'll see how much he can do against a very hot and balanced offense. The Lieutenant should be able to continue his rise to being a name brand QB, and Jarrett Boykin will look to build off of last week after having one of his best games as a Hokie.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 45   Eagles 6


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 7 Thoughts

Well besides the first quarter, where we had a whopping 8 yards of total offense and no first downs, the Hokies played another great game of football on Saturday. The Lieutenant was efficient and put up some more great stats. The running game was effective, even if sometimes it appears the defense knows exactly when and where we're running. David Wilson's run where he lost his shoe was his highlight of the game, which he seems to always have at least one a game. The fact that he didn't seem to slow down at all when he was running in one cleat and one sock feeds into the myth that maybe he's not actually touching the ground when he's at top speed.

The defense, which was already down three starters, and lost a fourth early on in the contest, played a solid game. When you can put in your young, inexperienced players, and they can step up and play like they could be out there all the time, says a lot about the mental approach everyone on this team has. You're always told when you're the backup that you're one play away from being in the game, and these young guys have certainly appeared to prepare that way. We won't know anything regarding injury status until Thursday, but these next two games would be good for these backups to get more playing time.

Jarrett Boykin was the game MVP in my opinion. His deep catches were big for momentum, especially the one before the first touchdown. I agree from the angles I saw that you couldn't reverse that call, but I still think it was a touchdown. It was also interesting to see how much Logan appeared to be targeting Marcus Davis early in the game. Not sure if that was due to gameplan, or just matchups, but it is nice to see how deep our receiving corps goes in talent.

These next two games should, without sounding overconfident, be easy wins. On defense we can get more experience and allow for healing with Boston College, and then see where we're at when we play Duke's high powered offense. Much like September, I'm looking for injury-free first, then worrying about getting upset second, to finish out the month. Hopefully on offense we're able to get backups some time in the game to get some experience. Mentally I don't worry about this team, and know that they know they can't take the foot off the gas, because we may still need to win out to get to Charlotte.

Across the ACC


Even though none of the games this weekend were high profile, there were some good games to watch in the league. Miami almost got taught a lesson about quitting too early, but it was good for the Hokies that they won. Now the Canes and Heels have two conference losses, and both have at least one divisional loss, which could help us in a tiebreaker situation.

GT going against UVA was one of those games I would be happy no matter who won. If UVA loss, obviously I wouldn't be torn up about it. But when UVA won and gave GT their first conference loss, it makes things a lot more interesting. We still need to beat GT as it stands right now, but they play Miami and Clemson before the Hokies, so there is no telling what the standings will look like in November.

The Clemson/Maryland game was one of the most entertaining games of the entire weekend, not just in the ACC. I don't know what Dabo or whoever said during halftime, but you could tell in the second half that the Tigers had their head on straight. Maryland tried to make it interesting with that touchdown early in the fourth, but Clemson responded perfectly with the kickoff return for a touchdown immediately after. Besides the high amount of time still left on the clock, it reminded me a lot of when The Jet returned his kickoff against GT last year.

It is week 7, and I have still yet to predict a perfect week in the ACC. There seems to always be that one upset no one sees coming. Even when I do a good job picking a 50/50 game, or an upset correctly, there is always one team that seems to ruin the perfect week for me. This week it was UVA, and for that they've made "The List". As of now, that is all that being on "The List" entails, but maybe one day I'll get around to punishing the teams and players that are on there.

Week 7 Predictions: 4-1
October Predictions: 14-5
September Predictions: 30-8
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 44-13


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 7 Predictions

Last minute edition.

Well even though I'd rather be watching the Hokies again in person, at least I have the second best seat to watch football in today; my couch. I never really understood how valuable it was in college to live minutes away from the stadium. I could leave my apartment not too long before the kickoff, and return not too long after the final whistle in order to watch as many games as I could during the day. Now it's not only a day-long event for me to catch a game, with all the additional travel, it's an entire weekend-long event.

But today I can sit back and watch all the great games, and some ACC games too, without ever moving if I don't want to.

Gimme Games
None

Upset Watch
Clemson over Maryland
FSU over Duke
VT over Wake Forest
GT over Virginia

50/50 Games
Miami over UNC

I don't see anything really exciting happening from the games today. Which of course means that they'll probably all end up different from my predictions. All games have the potential to be close, and as we know by now, anything can happen in the ACC, especially when there are two ACC teams playing in each game.

Even though there are a couple games being played in each traditional time slot, there are not any two games with the same kickoff time. Just an odd fact I noticed. But it's good for the conference to have everything spread out to keep us in people's minds throughout the day.

The game I'm must interested in watching (besides VT of course) is Miami and UNC. Miami is all but out of the Coastal Division race, and could essentially put UNC in the same position if they hand them their second conference loss.

FSU over Duke should be the biggest blowout of the day, but Clemson over Maryland probably will be; which of course means it will be GT over UVA. (See how I cover all my bases to appear like I'm right no matter what?). I knew FSU was overrated at #5 to start the year, but I didn't expect a collapse like we've witnessed the past few weeks.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Game 7 Preview: State Surprise vs State Champs

Earlier this year in one of my first articles previewing the ACC season, I picked Wake Forest as one of the worst teams in the conference. In fact I predicted them to finish with their same 3-9 record from last year. Well they already have four wins this year in only five games played, including a perfect 3-0 in conference. Last week, the expected doormat took down a pre-season top-5 team in FSU, which proved a lot of people wrong regarding output this season from both those teams.

So while Duke has rebounded from a couple early season losses to still keep bowl dreams alive, and UNC has been able to ignore off the field and coaching issues to also have only one loss so far this season, Wake Forest has definitely been the story in the my home state this year. This team is a lot like the 2006 Demon Deacon team that won the ACC, playing behind unheralded playmakers and great coaching.

Of course back in 2006 when the Deacs were riding high at 9-1 and #14 in the country, in came the Hokies for an evening game in Groves Stadium. Just like they were early in their ACC career, the Hokies still maintain a perfect (11-0) record in ACC road games played in the Tar Heel State. Last year the Hokies went 5-0 against all the 1-A football programs in NC, and are already 1-0 this year after knocking off ECU on the road. The state has been dominated lately by a small land-grant school just northwest of its borders, and that tradition looks to continue this Saturday night in front of millions of viewers.

What's that? This game against a couple one loss teams who are fighting for seeding atop their respective divisions isn't on tv? Surely it's just the national crowd that isn't interested. Oh, it's not even on locally for the conference fanbase, when it's being played just 30 minutes away from conference headquarters. Well I guess that's what happens when the powers that be make all their decisions based on the names on the jerseys instead of actual output on the field. But I still feel like FSU has a chance at that national championship, so let's keep riding that for a few more weeks.

Wake Forest Offense


At the beginning of this season, if I thought Wake Forest had any chance of being in the position they are now, I would have said that they would be riding the legs to Josh Harris to victory. Harris, who ran all over the Hokies last year for 200+ yards, only broke the century mark for the first time this year against the Noles last week with 136 yards. He only has 2 TDs on the ground, but a respectable 4.5 ypc average.

He is currently listed as doubtful for this game, but even if he plays at less than 100%, that could be one of those things that determines the outcome of this game. With the Hokies DL currently depleted and down two starters, the Deacs would have loved to try and get Harris going to control the clock and the tempo. But now a running offense that currently ranks 102 nationally will become even less dangerous with Harris gone or hurt.

Luckily for the Wake Forest faithful, as one star became dim, another has lit up the offense. Quite literally, assuming the term literal can be used for football idioms. Tanner Price is only a true sophomore, but has apparently turned a negative into a positive by taking all the losses last year and learned how to improve enough to turn those games into wins this year. He has already topped last year's throwing yards total, his completion percentage is 6 points higher, and his ratio went from 7:8 to currently 10:2.

Wake Forest has a plethora of receivers to rely on, and like most good passing programs, they all bring their own strength. You got your hands guy, your speed guy, your big body guy, etc. The most dangerous of this corp is the ACC's #1 receiver in terms of yards, Chris Givens. If the Gobblers want to load up on him however, there are plenty of capable receivers on the field with him in Danny Dembry and Michael Campanaro, just to name a couple.

Another facet of the Deacon offense the Hokies need to be disciplined about is misdirection and trickeration. In 2006 when Wake was doing this almost at will against most teams, the speed and discipline of the Hokie D was at its best, and for the most part shut down any attempt to confuse them. If we were at 100% on that side of the ball, I would say this team was just as capable of stopping this, but with injuries putting a lot of young bodies out on the field, we'll see how good the instincts and positioning of these inexperienced guys are.

Wake Forest Defense


Quick, in under 5 seconds name one defensive player for Wake Forest. That's what I thought. This unit isn't littered with big name stars, or guys that are talked about individually by the talking heads. They more than make up for that fact by each playing a role in the bigger picture. The Deacs defense last year was pretty abysmal, but being the incredible coach that he is, Grobe made a few tweaks this year to put his team in the position to win.

After looking at who he had, and what skills and attributes they possess, Jim Grobe changed his defense from a regular 4-3, into more of a 3-4/4-3 hybrid model. This hasn't turned them into a defensive juggernaut by any means, but besides some big pass plays given up, it has been rather effective. They have also been big in creating turnovers, including 5 last week against the Noles. If the Hokies want to put themselves in the best position to win, it would need another great mistake-free game like last week, where the only turnover was on an errant snap.

It would be unfair to not talk about a couple of the individuals who help anchor this unit. Nikita Whitlock, while undersized, is a great defensive tackle. Just a sophomore (are we noticing how young this surprising team is this year?), he started every game as a freshman, and is one of those diamond-in-the-rough type of recruits. He was only listed as a 2-star, but at this rate, could be one of those players that are talked about by the end of his career.

Some of the few seniors on this starting D are safeties Cyhl Quarles (spellcheck is freaking out) and Josh Bush (now it's happy again). These guys are not only great at being the experienced leaders of the team, but their production hasn't been too bad either. Quarles is a tackling machine, while Bush can create turnovers when the ball comes his way.

Conclusion


I know that Wake Forest is better than anyone has given them credit for this year. They've proven that on the field. I know that Jim Grobe is one of the best coaches in the country, even if outside the conference most don't see what he's capable of doing with less. I also know that the Hokies have been anything but consistent on offense, and are losing manpower seemingly every game on defense.

However, I just can't see this game being as close as many think it will be. I mean no disrespect to what Wake has accomplished this year. I've admitted I was wrong in my early season perception, and maybe I'll have to eat crow again after this weekend. But unless the Hokies unravel to the tune of 3+ turnovers, over 100 yards in penalties, and/or become completely overwhelmed with the amount of young bodies out on D, I don't see their perfect record in the state coming to an end.

This game should be good, and might even be close. And if so then great, because Wake Forest is a program that is almost a mirror image of Virginia Tech 20ish years ago. It would be great to see another program succeed and grow in the same way I've enjoyed watching my team become a household name. But that doesn't mean that we're done being king of the castle yet.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 31   Demon Deacons 17


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler