Game 9 Preview: Basement Dwellers vs. Kings of the Mountain

While I don't think Duke is far and away the worst team in the ACC like there were when the league expanded in 2004, their reputation is what would make losing to Duke the hardest for many fans of top tier programs. I'll come out and say this out of full disclosure: I am in fact a Duke fan, second of course to the Hokies. I root for Duke in any game that they aren't playing the Hokies, or in any game where them winning doesn't hurt the Hokies in any way.

Growing up in North Carolina, it was almost an unwritten rule to have an in-state ACC team to root for, mostly in basketball, and Duke is who I picked as a kid. I see why many people dislike them, because it is mainly for the same reasons I dislike UNC: their fans. The big difference I find between the two is that UNC fans are Duke fans on steroids, for lack of a better metaphor. And for anyone who asks why I had to pick between Duke or UNC, and not NC State or Wake Forest, my answer would be I enjoyed watching my favorite teams win. Bandwagon, yes, but when you're a kid, and it's really just for second favorite, you might as well pick someone good (and also at the time I never expected the Hokies to be in the ACC).

I don't sugarcoat the fact that Duke isn't "Duke" in football. They aren't the cocky, self-righteous group that you may see in other sports. They do have the right guy in charge to try and get them to that next level. The fact that a bowl game was/is a possibility for this team says a lot about how far they've come over the past handful of years. All that being said, they are not where they need to be to beat a program like Virginia Tech, without a lot of help, some of which they are getting before the first kickoff.

Duke Offense

This is the one area that the Blue Devils can put in the "pros" column. At least their passing offense is a strength. Their run game isn't quite effective enough to make them a true threat against any team with a strong secondary.

Sean Renfree is one of those quality quarterbacks who would probably be a household name if he played for a top-50 team BCS team. He is a smart and accurate QB (almost 70% completion this season), and has lots of help around him. The dangerous "V's" in Vernon and Varner have been two of the top receivers since they were freshman, and defenses having to keep an eye out on two quality wideouts opens up even more options.

While the Duke running game hasn't been terribly effective this year, mostly due to injuries and a poor offensive line, their backs are good check down options for Renfree. I'm sure if they wanted to, the Blue Devils could send "The V's" down the field, and dump it off short a high percentage of the time and get as many if not more yards that they would get from a traditional run play. 

The biggest question mark when this unit is on the field will be how the depleted defense of the Hokies can hold up against the offense with potential to drive every time. The formations that Bud will draw up won't be exactly the ones he would use with a completely healthy defense. To make way for some of the inexperienced  players that will be out on the field, we may see more of a nickel package like we used last year. We'll see how often players like Nick Dew are in the game like he would if we used our traditional 4-3 D. And while nobody wants to lose a Bruce Taylor, I am looking forward to seeing if Barquell can bring back some of the magic he had a couple years ago before his injury.

Duke Defense

While Cutliffe has done a tremendous job recruiting some underrated offensive talent, he hasn't quite got the guys he'd like on the other side of the ball to complete against the big boys. This year showcases a lot of young faces, and while that may be a positive in a couple years, we don't play games in the future, but in the present.

Up front, Duke lost one of it's best players with DE Anunike hurting his knee and being lost for the remainder of the season. Hokie fans are sick of losing players every single week, but teams like Duke, and Boston College last week, are losing just as many players, and they don't have the depth to replace them in an effective manner like we do. We worry about a player without experience missing an assignment, or not hearing the communicated play correctly. Duke has to replace their injured guys with players who, no matter how smart they may be, aren't big or skilled enough to stop most teams.

One wrinkle you don't see often but will see on Saturday, is the fact that instead of a traditional 4-3-4, or 3-4-4, (or 3-3-5 if you're ass backwards cousin lovers) the Devils play a 4-2-5 scheme. I'm not an X's or O's kind of guy, but if I was building a defense, I would build around a solid linebacking corps, and would definitely want more than just two out on the field at a time. Even with just a couple out there at a time, Duke does have one of the best linebackers in the league in Kelby Brown. There should still be plenty of room over the middle for quick passes or runs.

Logan Thomas has been throwing his deep ball rather effectively this year, but we'll see how often that play is called with Duke playing two corners and three safeties on most plays. Most of these guys play a hybrid of two different positions depending on what the offense is doing, but there is a lot of inexperience at play. Cornerback Johnny Williams for example used to be a wide receiver. Due to the effectiveness of "The V's", as well as his speed and hands, he was moved to CB before last season. I would expect Duke to play a lot of zone, not expecting to be able to matchup man-to-man with the Hokies. That shouldn't be a big problem for the Hokies or The Lieutenant though, as he was very effective against the zone last week versus the Eagles.

I think Duke will be able to put up a couple touchdowns on the depleted Hokie D, but I also expected the Hokies to do the same in return, only in greater numbers. If the Hokie O decides to start slow again, this game could be closer into the second half than many would expect. I think it will be a good game for our young defensive players to get valuable playing time against a decent offense. 

In the end, an upset will be unlikely, but crazier things have happened in this league. Kind of like how the Canes always have one of the best recruiting classes, put the most players in the NFL, yet in between can't even beat UVA year in and out.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 35   Devils 17

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 9 Predictions

Thursday Night Edition!

For the second week in a row, all 12 ACC teams are in action this week, and every game is within the conference. Not every game will bear any factor over divisional races, at least not at the top of those races, but some of these games could be key this time next month. We're starting to get a feel for what to expect when most of these teams hit the field, but every week produces a surprise of some sort, so let's try to find out where there could be an upset or two.

Gimme Games
None

Upset Watch
VT over Duke
Miami over UVA
Clemson over Georgia Tech

50/50 Games
FSU over NC State
Boston College over Maryland
UNC over Wake Forest

The closest thing to a gimme game this week would have been VT/Duke had the Hokies been even close to completely healthy on defense, but alas we all know how that is going. Look for the preview article tomorrow for a more in-depth look as to how this game could play out.

Not counting State's embarrassing showing against Cincy this year, or Wake's unfortunate OT loss on opening night, this week will be the first true ACC showcase on ESPN's Thursday Night Football. I don't see this one being exciting enough to keep the viewers all game however. Hell, if I didn't have two TVs in my living room, and a sense of obligation to watch since it is ACC, I would probably watch something else too. UVA couldn't back up their signature win over an undefeated, ranked opponent with anything worthwhile, and Miami has surprising played better since being all but eliminated from the divisional race. Add in the fact that while Sun Life Stadium isn't a huge home field advantage, the Canes themselves will be looking for payback from last year.

Georgia Tech hasn't been playing well in the past two weeks, and Clemson hasn't Clemson'd out on us yet this year, so no reason to think the upset will occur here. It's always possible, and these two usually provide one of the better cross-divisional rivalry games each year, but it would take an almost perfect game by Georgia Tech to win in my opinion. The 8 o'clock national coverage could be a good chance for the Jacket faithful to get rowdy and loud by game time, and could be a good indication of what it may be like for the Hokies in a couple weeks. Of course if the Bumblebees lose a third straight and then have basically a week off before the matchup of the Techs, we'll see how supportive the fan base really is.

Easily the least important matchup this week will be Maryland and Boston College. Neither team can do anything at this point except maybe somehow win a game they're not supposed to and shake up the standings a bit, but this game on its own won't matter. Maryland has looked like crap (or some would say "like Maryland") since Week 1, and Boston College, while better than their record, is still 1-6. I do expect the Eagles to get their first conference win this week though.

NC State usually plays pretty well against the Noles, including last year's upset win that almost helped them win the division. This game will either be a dominant win by the Noles if they play to their potential, or at least play for pay back, or a close game if both teams come out lethargic like they know that the win won't help anything but possible bowl placement. If Jimbo wants to receive even half the credit he was getting between January and September before next season, he needs to get his team ready to play and win every remaining game, no matter how important it may be.

UNC and Wake Forest probably won't get mentioned much this week, but to me it will be a pretty interesting game. Wake Forest bounced back from their first ACC loss and beat in-state rival Duke, but now they want to take down the king of the state. Throw in the fact that UNC will have just returned from stating their case to the NCAA, and while no decisions regarding that will have been made, we'll see where the heads of the coaches and players for the Tar Heels are after that ordeal. Talent-wise UNC should win this game easily, but Wake Forest knows that unlike their opponent, they still control their own destiny in their division, but a second conference loss would require them to not only beat Clemson, but they would need someone else to beat the Tigers in conference as well.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 8 Thoughts

Well it was the worst of times, then it was the best of times. Once again the Hokie offense took a while to get going this past week, but once it started it couldn't be stopped. During the on-field post-game interview with The Lieutenant they asked him about what they changed at halftime, and besides getting the ball to Wilson more, he said they didn't really change anything.

Assuming that is true, I'm not sure how I feel about it. On the one hand it means that our offense can either be on or off, and it's not really in our control. On the other hand, he could just be talking in coachspeak and didn't want to give away any real strategy we used. I believe that The Jet only had four carries in the first half, which even if the passing game is running smoothly, is way too low.

I know that the coaches and the new playcaller are probably excited with the production out of the passing game compared to almost any year in the Beamer-era, but when you have a dynamic player like David Wilson, you give him the ball no matter what. And if the second half is any indication, staying truly balanced between run and pass will give this team a lot of success in scoring points.

Defensively we had a lot of success as well, sans the first short-field drive, especially considering how many backups we have to play now. And of course the injuries keep piling up for the Lunch Pail Crew, as Gayle re-injured himself on the first drive, and now we've lost Bruce Taylor for the year. Perhaps the reason Bud Foster has had so much success as a defensive coordinator is due to the fact he long ago sold his soul to the devil, and is possibly behind in his monthly payments, resulting in losing one or two players a week. It's the VIG that kills you.

Going up against Duke next week shouldn't be a problem, but you'd rather be short a handful of offensive guys, as their offense has the capability to make big plays and drive the field consistently. I still think that players who are on the edge of being healthy should sit out this one. Unless it gets to a point late in the game where it is actually close, and we've experienced trouble stopping them, this should just be one of those games we tell the young, inexperienced guys that this is their game.

Across the ACC


This is the first week all year I've gone perfect in my predictions. Ironically it came the week I said I was unsure about most of my picks. In the end I just went with my heart/head instead of over-thinking each matchup, and it apparently paid off.

Clemson once again looked scary good, as they put up more points than I can count to on one of the supposed best defenses in the conference. It's hard to tell if UNC is just hitting that mid-season lull do to all the offseason and off the field issues, or if they're just playing that many teams that are better than them. Either way, it's frustrating to watch how good Clemson is, and know that we did a good job against them defensively, and couldn't get just one or two touchdowns that would have made the game interesting.

Wake and Duke didn't have quite the shootout that I expected, and it was actually a pretty boring game. For most of the game I expected to see drive after drive, only to watch two teams seem to get in their own way. Wake Forest is the only real threat to Clemson ending up in Charlotte mathematically, but nothing short of a natural disaster hitting only South Carolina is going to derail them now. Just hopefully we're there to take care of them in Charlotte so we don't have to hear about how an undefeated ACC team was left out of the National Championship.

FSU whipped up on Maryland like they should have, so...yay? I'm not really sure what to say anymore about the Noles, because it doesn't really matter what they do the rest of the year, they'll be viewed as underachieving. Almost more embarrassing than FSU however is what Maryland has done after Week 1. I expected them to contend for the division for at least a little while this year, and after beating Miami it looked like they would pick up where they finished off last year. Now they've played six more games and have only won one.

While I did pick Miami to beat the Yellow Jackets, the fact that they gave up only 7 points is pretty impressive. The best way to prepare for the GT offense is to either have an extra week to prepare, or in Miami's case, have a very fast defense. The Hokies could have both in their favor, but we'll still probably need more than that depending on how many guys are still hurt in two weeks. Even though it has always been in their own hands, it is nice to see VT atop the Coastal Standings all by their lonesome.

Week 8 Predictions: 6-0
October Predictions: 20-5
September Predictions: 30-8
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 50-13


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 8 Predictions

No game preview article this week for a number of reasons: A change in my work schedule, release of Batman: Arkham City, couldn't think of a witty title for this week's opponent; all the usual reasons. There should be a lot of good games in the ACC, as well as all throughout the NCAA, but the Gobblers and Eagles won't be one of them. There will be a very brief analysis at the end.

Gimme Games
VT over Boston College

Upset Watch
Clemson over UNC
Florida State over Maryland

50/50 Games
Miami over Georgia Tech
NC State over UVA
Wake Forest over Duke

This might be the first week all season that I actually feel unsure about the majority of my picks. Part of that have to do with the individual matchups, and part of that is this is the ACC; anything can, and usually does, happen.

Mathematically speaking, the Coastal Division is a two team race right now with Techs in the lead, but UNC and Miami have an outside chance if they win out. Miami has a chance to help themselves today if they beat the Jackets, but that loss to the Hokies could come back to haunt them at the end of November. The truth is however that Miami is not consistent enough to really be a threat with the two early losses.

For UNC to keep their divisional hopes alive, they'd need to knock off the best team in the conference, in one of the hardest places to win in Death Valley. Then they would have to win the rest of their games, which includes a win in another tough place to win on a Thursday night in Lane Stadium. They've done it before, when they didn't even have anything to gain from it, so we'll see where they stand in a month.

FSU shouldn't have any problems against Maryland, but the Terps showed last week that they can at least try to outscore a tough opponent in a shootout. The Noles would need a lot of help besides just winning their own games to return to Charlotte, and that is looking less and less likely each week that Clemson continues to roll.

The only real threat to the Tigers right now is Wake Forest (still can't believe I'm saying that). After losing their first conference game last week, the Deacs still control their own destiny if they win out. They need to make sure they put last week behind them and take care of Duke if they want to continue to be in the race. That game might have the highest point total of any game in the conference this. Very similar to last week's Clemson/Maryland matchup.

This week the Hokies need to continue to be consistent on offense, as well as try to stay/get healthy on defense. Last year with a much less effective defense, the Gobblers got a shutout up in Chestnut Hill. I'm not sure they'll be able to get the goose egg again, but that's mainly due to the injuries and projected amount of time the backups will be in the game today. Without Montel Harris however, the Eagles won't be able to score enough to keep up with the Hokies.

David Wilson needs just under 100 yards to reach 1000 on the season, so look for that to happen today. If there is anybody who can try to turn the tide for the Eagles it is superstar linebacker Luke Kuechly. He is the anchor of that defense, but we'll see how much he can do against a very hot and balanced offense. The Lieutenant should be able to continue his rise to being a name brand QB, and Jarrett Boykin will look to build off of last week after having one of his best games as a Hokie.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 45   Eagles 6


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 7 Thoughts

Well besides the first quarter, where we had a whopping 8 yards of total offense and no first downs, the Hokies played another great game of football on Saturday. The Lieutenant was efficient and put up some more great stats. The running game was effective, even if sometimes it appears the defense knows exactly when and where we're running. David Wilson's run where he lost his shoe was his highlight of the game, which he seems to always have at least one a game. The fact that he didn't seem to slow down at all when he was running in one cleat and one sock feeds into the myth that maybe he's not actually touching the ground when he's at top speed.

The defense, which was already down three starters, and lost a fourth early on in the contest, played a solid game. When you can put in your young, inexperienced players, and they can step up and play like they could be out there all the time, says a lot about the mental approach everyone on this team has. You're always told when you're the backup that you're one play away from being in the game, and these young guys have certainly appeared to prepare that way. We won't know anything regarding injury status until Thursday, but these next two games would be good for these backups to get more playing time.

Jarrett Boykin was the game MVP in my opinion. His deep catches were big for momentum, especially the one before the first touchdown. I agree from the angles I saw that you couldn't reverse that call, but I still think it was a touchdown. It was also interesting to see how much Logan appeared to be targeting Marcus Davis early in the game. Not sure if that was due to gameplan, or just matchups, but it is nice to see how deep our receiving corps goes in talent.

These next two games should, without sounding overconfident, be easy wins. On defense we can get more experience and allow for healing with Boston College, and then see where we're at when we play Duke's high powered offense. Much like September, I'm looking for injury-free first, then worrying about getting upset second, to finish out the month. Hopefully on offense we're able to get backups some time in the game to get some experience. Mentally I don't worry about this team, and know that they know they can't take the foot off the gas, because we may still need to win out to get to Charlotte.

Across the ACC


Even though none of the games this weekend were high profile, there were some good games to watch in the league. Miami almost got taught a lesson about quitting too early, but it was good for the Hokies that they won. Now the Canes and Heels have two conference losses, and both have at least one divisional loss, which could help us in a tiebreaker situation.

GT going against UVA was one of those games I would be happy no matter who won. If UVA loss, obviously I wouldn't be torn up about it. But when UVA won and gave GT their first conference loss, it makes things a lot more interesting. We still need to beat GT as it stands right now, but they play Miami and Clemson before the Hokies, so there is no telling what the standings will look like in November.

The Clemson/Maryland game was one of the most entertaining games of the entire weekend, not just in the ACC. I don't know what Dabo or whoever said during halftime, but you could tell in the second half that the Tigers had their head on straight. Maryland tried to make it interesting with that touchdown early in the fourth, but Clemson responded perfectly with the kickoff return for a touchdown immediately after. Besides the high amount of time still left on the clock, it reminded me a lot of when The Jet returned his kickoff against GT last year.

It is week 7, and I have still yet to predict a perfect week in the ACC. There seems to always be that one upset no one sees coming. Even when I do a good job picking a 50/50 game, or an upset correctly, there is always one team that seems to ruin the perfect week for me. This week it was UVA, and for that they've made "The List". As of now, that is all that being on "The List" entails, but maybe one day I'll get around to punishing the teams and players that are on there.

Week 7 Predictions: 4-1
October Predictions: 14-5
September Predictions: 30-8
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 44-13


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 7 Predictions

Last minute edition.

Well even though I'd rather be watching the Hokies again in person, at least I have the second best seat to watch football in today; my couch. I never really understood how valuable it was in college to live minutes away from the stadium. I could leave my apartment not too long before the kickoff, and return not too long after the final whistle in order to watch as many games as I could during the day. Now it's not only a day-long event for me to catch a game, with all the additional travel, it's an entire weekend-long event.

But today I can sit back and watch all the great games, and some ACC games too, without ever moving if I don't want to.

Gimme Games
None

Upset Watch
Clemson over Maryland
FSU over Duke
VT over Wake Forest
GT over Virginia

50/50 Games
Miami over UNC

I don't see anything really exciting happening from the games today. Which of course means that they'll probably all end up different from my predictions. All games have the potential to be close, and as we know by now, anything can happen in the ACC, especially when there are two ACC teams playing in each game.

Even though there are a couple games being played in each traditional time slot, there are not any two games with the same kickoff time. Just an odd fact I noticed. But it's good for the conference to have everything spread out to keep us in people's minds throughout the day.

The game I'm must interested in watching (besides VT of course) is Miami and UNC. Miami is all but out of the Coastal Division race, and could essentially put UNC in the same position if they hand them their second conference loss.

FSU over Duke should be the biggest blowout of the day, but Clemson over Maryland probably will be; which of course means it will be GT over UVA. (See how I cover all my bases to appear like I'm right no matter what?). I knew FSU was overrated at #5 to start the year, but I didn't expect a collapse like we've witnessed the past few weeks.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Game 7 Preview: State Surprise vs State Champs

Earlier this year in one of my first articles previewing the ACC season, I picked Wake Forest as one of the worst teams in the conference. In fact I predicted them to finish with their same 3-9 record from last year. Well they already have four wins this year in only five games played, including a perfect 3-0 in conference. Last week, the expected doormat took down a pre-season top-5 team in FSU, which proved a lot of people wrong regarding output this season from both those teams.

So while Duke has rebounded from a couple early season losses to still keep bowl dreams alive, and UNC has been able to ignore off the field and coaching issues to also have only one loss so far this season, Wake Forest has definitely been the story in the my home state this year. This team is a lot like the 2006 Demon Deacon team that won the ACC, playing behind unheralded playmakers and great coaching.

Of course back in 2006 when the Deacs were riding high at 9-1 and #14 in the country, in came the Hokies for an evening game in Groves Stadium. Just like they were early in their ACC career, the Hokies still maintain a perfect (11-0) record in ACC road games played in the Tar Heel State. Last year the Hokies went 5-0 against all the 1-A football programs in NC, and are already 1-0 this year after knocking off ECU on the road. The state has been dominated lately by a small land-grant school just northwest of its borders, and that tradition looks to continue this Saturday night in front of millions of viewers.

What's that? This game against a couple one loss teams who are fighting for seeding atop their respective divisions isn't on tv? Surely it's just the national crowd that isn't interested. Oh, it's not even on locally for the conference fanbase, when it's being played just 30 minutes away from conference headquarters. Well I guess that's what happens when the powers that be make all their decisions based on the names on the jerseys instead of actual output on the field. But I still feel like FSU has a chance at that national championship, so let's keep riding that for a few more weeks.

Wake Forest Offense


At the beginning of this season, if I thought Wake Forest had any chance of being in the position they are now, I would have said that they would be riding the legs to Josh Harris to victory. Harris, who ran all over the Hokies last year for 200+ yards, only broke the century mark for the first time this year against the Noles last week with 136 yards. He only has 2 TDs on the ground, but a respectable 4.5 ypc average.

He is currently listed as doubtful for this game, but even if he plays at less than 100%, that could be one of those things that determines the outcome of this game. With the Hokies DL currently depleted and down two starters, the Deacs would have loved to try and get Harris going to control the clock and the tempo. But now a running offense that currently ranks 102 nationally will become even less dangerous with Harris gone or hurt.

Luckily for the Wake Forest faithful, as one star became dim, another has lit up the offense. Quite literally, assuming the term literal can be used for football idioms. Tanner Price is only a true sophomore, but has apparently turned a negative into a positive by taking all the losses last year and learned how to improve enough to turn those games into wins this year. He has already topped last year's throwing yards total, his completion percentage is 6 points higher, and his ratio went from 7:8 to currently 10:2.

Wake Forest has a plethora of receivers to rely on, and like most good passing programs, they all bring their own strength. You got your hands guy, your speed guy, your big body guy, etc. The most dangerous of this corp is the ACC's #1 receiver in terms of yards, Chris Givens. If the Gobblers want to load up on him however, there are plenty of capable receivers on the field with him in Danny Dembry and Michael Campanaro, just to name a couple.

Another facet of the Deacon offense the Hokies need to be disciplined about is misdirection and trickeration. In 2006 when Wake was doing this almost at will against most teams, the speed and discipline of the Hokie D was at its best, and for the most part shut down any attempt to confuse them. If we were at 100% on that side of the ball, I would say this team was just as capable of stopping this, but with injuries putting a lot of young bodies out on the field, we'll see how good the instincts and positioning of these inexperienced guys are.

Wake Forest Defense


Quick, in under 5 seconds name one defensive player for Wake Forest. That's what I thought. This unit isn't littered with big name stars, or guys that are talked about individually by the talking heads. They more than make up for that fact by each playing a role in the bigger picture. The Deacs defense last year was pretty abysmal, but being the incredible coach that he is, Grobe made a few tweaks this year to put his team in the position to win.

After looking at who he had, and what skills and attributes they possess, Jim Grobe changed his defense from a regular 4-3, into more of a 3-4/4-3 hybrid model. This hasn't turned them into a defensive juggernaut by any means, but besides some big pass plays given up, it has been rather effective. They have also been big in creating turnovers, including 5 last week against the Noles. If the Hokies want to put themselves in the best position to win, it would need another great mistake-free game like last week, where the only turnover was on an errant snap.

It would be unfair to not talk about a couple of the individuals who help anchor this unit. Nikita Whitlock, while undersized, is a great defensive tackle. Just a sophomore (are we noticing how young this surprising team is this year?), he started every game as a freshman, and is one of those diamond-in-the-rough type of recruits. He was only listed as a 2-star, but at this rate, could be one of those players that are talked about by the end of his career.

Some of the few seniors on this starting D are safeties Cyhl Quarles (spellcheck is freaking out) and Josh Bush (now it's happy again). These guys are not only great at being the experienced leaders of the team, but their production hasn't been too bad either. Quarles is a tackling machine, while Bush can create turnovers when the ball comes his way.

Conclusion


I know that Wake Forest is better than anyone has given them credit for this year. They've proven that on the field. I know that Jim Grobe is one of the best coaches in the country, even if outside the conference most don't see what he's capable of doing with less. I also know that the Hokies have been anything but consistent on offense, and are losing manpower seemingly every game on defense.

However, I just can't see this game being as close as many think it will be. I mean no disrespect to what Wake has accomplished this year. I've admitted I was wrong in my early season perception, and maybe I'll have to eat crow again after this weekend. But unless the Hokies unravel to the tune of 3+ turnovers, over 100 yards in penalties, and/or become completely overwhelmed with the amount of young bodies out on D, I don't see their perfect record in the state coming to an end.

This game should be good, and might even be close. And if so then great, because Wake Forest is a program that is almost a mirror image of Virginia Tech 20ish years ago. It would be great to see another program succeed and grow in the same way I've enjoyed watching my team become a household name. But that doesn't mean that we're done being king of the castle yet.

Score Prediction: Gobblers 31   Demon Deacons 17


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

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Week 6 Thoughts

I don't think anybody was expecting that kind of offensive performance out of the Hokies and, more specifically, Logan Thomas on Saturday. I don't think anyone is complaining though. If you told me before the game that we needed to score more than 35 points to win, I would have asked how many games we had to do it in.

A mere week after having one of the worst performances on offense in a long, long time, the Hokies were almost unstoppable with the ball in their hands. We also witnessed what is hopefully the beginning of a new era for The Lieutenant. Now it will be hard for him to top this past week's performance statistically (92% completion rate is ridiculous), but it is no longer a question of "can he do it?".

Everyone is going to talk about how poised and in control LT was during the final game winning drive. What I haven't seen talked about anywhere is the fact it wasn't even the first time that game that he did this. To end the first half, the exact same type of drive was asked of the offense, and it was executed just as beautifully.

Earlier this season I wrote that one of the biggest problems I had with Logan at this stage in his development was he stared down his primary receiver without looking at his options. On that final drive of the first half, I saw at least 3 or 4 times where he went through his progressions and ended up dumping the ball off to either the running back or short yard receiver. It was smart, it was effective, and it was what needed to be done to eventually get the touchdown.

There were some obvious flaws defensively in the second half, but I chalked those up to other intangibles that weren't really in the Hokies control. We were injury plagued on the D-line, going up against the best O-line in the conference, and one of the top running backs in the country. Hopefully we can get Gayle back soon, but reports for JGW suggest it may be more serious than just a few days of light contact. If that is the case, I feel that Tweedy has the capability to step up and help the linebackers. He has always had the speed, and his work mainly on special teams the past few years has helped improve his tackling.

Wake Forest is clearly better than anyone was expecting coming into the season, so this will be another test on Saturday. Having said that, it should be a drop off in individual skills over the next three games. As long as we don't keep getting plagued by the injury bug, hopefully we keep this momentum going through the rest of the month.

Across the ACC

Once again this past weekend I was in Blacksburg to watch the Hokies live, so I was unable to watch any other ACC games. Clearly the most surprising outcome was the Demon Deacons knocking the Noles to a sub .500 record. The fact that Wake didn't get more top-25 votes shows a lack of respect for what they've done this season. They're one injured QB in the 4th quarter away from being undefeated right now.

As the WF/FSU game is the only one I predicted the winner wrong, there isn't much to say about the other games. The UNC game was surprisingly low scoring. At first I thought the updates on my phone were messed up since no one was scoring. GT also didn't really blow out Maryland as much as I expected. Clemson kept their stock up high, but we'll find out how serious the injury to Boyd ends up being.

Final Parting Shot

This week, instead of picking on a player or team that did poorly, I'm going to rant instead. Although if you haven't seen the ECU receiver getting hit on the head on a deep pass, it's good for a laugh.

There are many things that differentiate college football from pro football when it comes to rules. Some are good. For example, I believe that college athletes shouldn't be paid. I'm not saying they don't deserve it, because they certainly deserve something for the revenue they help generate, but there is no way I can think of that would keep the playing field even between big and small market programs. It's the same reason I think there should be a salary cap in all pro sports. This however isn't what irked me this weekend, just a random tangent.

What really annoys me about college football is how much they're taking the manliest sport, and turning it into a joke with how it penalizes anything that is considered celebrating. I agree that there shouldn't ever be any vulgarity when it comes to how a team celebrates, or any direct taunting of an opponent or opposing fan base. But this new rule regarding an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that erases touchdowns is ridiculous.

Obviously at this point I'm referring specifically to the LSU punter who was penalize for sticking out his arms, for a fraction of a second mind you, a few yards before crossing the goal line. I want someone on the rules committee to explain to me how it has gotten to the point where an action such as that is so bad, that it is essentially the same punishment as hitting a defenseless player late on a play.

Another problem with this rule is the fact that it is completely up to the ref working that particular game to whether or not it should be penalized. During the Arkansas game, at the end of a long TD run, the Arkansas player slowed down during the last 10 yards. Technically according to the wording of the rule, that is "breaking stride", and should/could be penalized. Yet in that game, the ref didn't throw a flag.

I'm all for rules that make sense, or that protects the players from getting hurt. Like I said, this is a game of gladiators, and some measures should be taken to keep people from being seriously injured. But if we are wasting time making up rules that should only even be considered for 8-year-old's YMCA leagues, then the only thing that is going to happen is the reputation of one of the best sports in the world going down.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Week 6 ACC Predictions

Got another short list of ACC games this week as many continue with conference play and Duke and UVA take the week off. UNC and NC State play the only out of conference games this week, as the rest of the league are playing those all-important conference games.

Gimme Games
None

Upset Watch
Georgia Tech over Maryland
UNC over Louisville
Clemson over Boston College
FSU over Wake Forest

50/50 Games
NC State over Central Michigan
Virginia Tech over Miami

Picking the ACC to go undefeated in non-conference play, which isn't saying much given the amount of OOC games, and the opponents. NC State is probably the team I'm least confident in. They have the talent advantage, but at this point in the season for them it's almost more psychological. They need to come out knowing they're the better team and play like it.

Clemson shouldn't have any problems with the Eagles, but if the upset were to occur, who would honestly be surprised? I would just be mad their choke game came a week too late. As of now I want them to continue undefeated or just one loss if we're to meet them again in Charlotte.

FSU and Wake Forest should be an interesting game, with a small chance for the upset. That is the one ACC game besides the Hokies I would enjoy watching if I wasn't in Blacksburg. Maryland and GT also has potential to be good, but could easily be a Yellow Jacket blowout.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Game 6 Preview: Blue Collar vs Swagger

Another weekend is approaching, and another day of travel for yours truly. For the second weekend in a row I'll be able to enjoy beauty of Blacksburg and atmosphere of Lane Stadium. I'll be staying in town all weekend, as opposed to last week's day trip, but hopefully this time I leave with a smile on my face.

I should include a second copy of the VT logo on the Miami side of that "VS", because the Hokies will be battling their own demons as much as "Da U". Unfortunately, Miami has the kind of skill you need to focus all your attention on. On the bright side, the Canes also have problems with tripping over themselves, be it because of individual ego, coaching, or just straight up apathy.

The VT/Miami rivalry has become a fun yearly event, and even in seasons where one or both teams weren't in the national spotlight, there is usually something on the line when these two meet up. This year it is just the upper hand in a division that will take a lot more games than this one to decide. This is almost a must win game for both teams, as they're both 0-1 in conference, albeit against cross-divisional teams, so both teams still control their own destiny. A loss this weekend will put one team behind the proverbial 8-ball. On the other hand, a loss shouldn't deter either team's motivation going forth, because if there is one constant in the ACC, it is that anything can happen.

Injuries have been affecting both teams this season, with both teams losing some key players to season long injuries. Tech suffers a loss on both lines in Wang and Hopkins, while the Canes are seeing their front seven depleted with the loss of LB Buchanon, and DT Forston. You never want to see injuries happen, even to rival opponents, but now is the time for some young blood to step up and show why they were worth a scholarship to whichever great program they currently play for.

Miami Offense

Once again at the helm for the Canes is QB Jacory Harris. After receiving a lot of over hyped talk early in his career, Harris has never been able to live up to his potential/hype, whichever side you believe to be the truth. When he is on, he is hard to stop, but when he's rattled, he is hard to settle down. The key here will be for the Hokie D to give his as little time as possible to throw the ball. A sack and fumble early in the contest last time the Canes were in Lane and "back" started what would become an eventual blowout in the rain. A situation like that, assuming the offensive can capitalize, would be huge this week. On a side note, and not that I'm complaining, in my non-bias opinion, I don't understand why Golden didn't decide to stick with Morris all year. He may not be as experienced as Harris, but he is the future, so you might as well give him time this year to prepare for the future. Although we'll see how long into the future Golden is at the U, so maybe it's not a big concern to him.

The main reason the Hokies were able to pull out a victory in Sun Life Stadium last year is the fact the Canes decided to stop running the ball when it was clearly working. Lamar Miller was getting yards at will, but the Gobbler defense is quite different and up to the task this year. I expect the Canes' initial gameplan to give him the rock a high number of times, and see how effective that is. If we play up to the level the D has been at all year and shut him down early, hopefully that forces the Canes to put the ball into Harris' hands more often. Jayron and company would love the opportunity to be the game changers with Jacory's history of throwing to the other team.

The Canes receiving corps has a nice combination in speed (Benjamin), youth (Hurns), and size (Streeter). These guys can be dangerous in different ways, but we'd probably rather Miami be trying to get them the ball instead of Miller. The best part of the Canes O is their large, and deep offensive line, but once they get more complicated than just handing the ball to the player in the backfield, there are too many ways they can trip up over their own feet.

Miami Defense

As I mentioned earlier, the Miami defense has been depleted a little bit, and that starts up front on the D-line. The Canes have already struggled to stop the run this year, so this should be helpful to the Hokies who also want to establish themselves on the ground first. Although last week we played a Clemson D who struggled to stop the run, and didn't put up any impressive or impact numbers. As long as the Hokies use their two backs to their strengths (no outside runs by JO on 3rd and 1) we should be able to take a little bit of the load off of Logan (sidenote 2: I've stripped him of his The Lieutenant nickname till he has earned it).

With the second, and bigger, injury to Buchanon in the middle, the Canes have an interesting dynamic in the linebackers. On the one hand, their best player is a LB. On the other hand, there is no one else there. It will be interesting to see if Tech's bumbling offense will be able to take advantage of this weakness and exploit it. Maybe more crossing routes and passes over the middle, which is something we should have been doing all year anyways.

One player the Canes are getting back to their roster is Ray Ray Armstrong, who until now has been serving a suspension, for reasons I can't even keep up with anymore. While he may not start, he'll definitely play. Along with him in the secondary is Telemaque, who is capable of being both a leader and playmaker. I'm sure for when we do decide to pass down field, the gameplan will be for Logan to know where those two are pre-snap. We already have enough turnovers on the season, and I'm not trying to give away anymore by throwing up prayers to their strong spots.

Conclusion

This game has the potential to be another classic Hokies/Hurricanes game. Great players playing great football in a game that comes down to the 4th quarter. This game also has the potential to be heavy on the defensive action, and low on the points. Either way I hope the crowd is past last week's loss, and loud for the entire game. This will be probably our last non-noon, non-Thursday night game, so take advantage of the tailgating time that is allowed with the 3:30 start.

The last couple of times VT has been embarrassed on the scoreboard, (BC 06, LSU 07, JMU 10) the Hokies have responded well to finish out the season. This year is far from over, and while competition may get a little lighter after this game, we can't afford to start 0-2 in conference and expect to play in Charlotte without a lot of luck.

Logan right now is young, which isn't his fault, but that means we need a leader on offense to get them back on the right track. I would expect experienced guys like Boykin or Coale, or passionate guys like Wilson to try get things right psychologically before kickoff. After that it all comes down to execution, as I still refuse to believe that these players don't have the skill to be an explosive offensive unit. Only time will tell.

Score Prediction: Hokies 20    Hurricanes: 14

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!

ACC weekend preview and predictions coming during the next layover.

Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler

Week 5 Thoughts

First off let me start by saying the delay in this article has nothing to do with any depression or anger issues from Saturday night. Just by merely being at the game in person, and all the traveling and then catching up when I did return home that ensued, I haven't had that much time. Plus it's better not to write with emotion when things aren't always in perspective.

Even though I've cooled off from the outcome of the game itself, I'm still pretty upset by what happened. Not the loss itself, but the fact that we lost that game as much as Clemson won it. They deserve all the credit in the world for coming into a rowdy atmosphere, in their first road test, and not making any mistakes leading to their eventual win. But at the same time, we did almost everything we could to help them.

We all had to know, whether we admit it or not, that we weren't going to play perfectly on offense this season, even with all the skills we have throughout all the positions. The frustrating part (and I've been using the term "frustrating" for weeks now) is the fact that we're not playing anywhere near our potential, let alone at it.

LT fires a hard pass, as he's known to do, Boykin can only get a hand on it, and it gets picked. Ok. DW plays with a great deal of confidence, holds the ball out of position at times, and a perfect hit jars the ball loose. Fine. These things happen, and they happened at inopportune times. But when we have the ball 1st and Goal on the 2, and the chance to take the lead, after all the other unfortunate events took place, and we need to blame a false start on 3rd down for why we settled for a FG, that is unacceptable.

Honestly, I don't care about how pretty things look, as long as they're smart and effective. When we have four plays from the 2 yard line, I don't care if we QB sneak it every play, because the odds say we probably won't fumble, and we'll probably get the yards and points. When we're running the ball successfully multiple plays in a row, then try to get fancy with a pass that results in a loss of down with no yards gained, I want to know the reason behind it. Same goes for when passing is in the zone, and we run right at the line for no gain.

Like many VT fans, my younger brother made a comment about the offensive playcalling, and I tried my best to describe my opinion on it in this way. If you're a team who is filled with players without many individual skills, and you're playing a higher quality opponent, you need to make your play calls in a way that tries to outsmart the other team. If you catch them off guard, it won't matter if you're slower or less powerful than them, because you'll gain the yards you need if it is executed properly.

The problem however, is that the Hokies have the talent and skills at all the spots, but our coaches seem to make their decisions, at least on offense, like we need to outsmart the other team. In most cases, it won't matter if the defense knows that DW is going to get the ball, because unless they completely sell out and load the box, one or two players most likely aren't going to stop him. If we have a 3rd and 1 play, with JO in the backfield, why on earth would we do anything other than QB sneak, or give JO the ball up the middle? Instead, on Saturday night, I saw the exact same scenario happen, but we gave JO the ball to the outside, and he lost a couple yards. Ironically enough, on either the next drive or the one after, we had another 1 yard to gain situation, and there wasn't even any hesitation to give LT the ball on the sneak. And guess what? It worked!

Now I'm not an X's and O's kind of guy. I've never coached nor played football in any organized structure. So clearly I'm nowhere near as qualified to say what is wrong and how it should be fixed as the coaches who are getting paid lots of money to make those decisions. But I have watched and followed a lot of football in my life, and I can tell the difference between a bad team, and bad execution/decision making, and right now something has to be done to fix what is going on with our offense.

Obviously I have not made any comments yet about our defense, and that is because I feel they did everything we could have asked from them this past weekend. I don't even count the last TD against them, because at that point in the game I'm sure they were pissed off at how many times they had stopped this high powered offense, only to never see the deficit shrink.

This week we get a Miami team that is very Jekyll and Hyde. What we do know is that they have the talent to play anybody, even if they squander it more often than we tend to do. At least when we don't play to our potential, we still usually win most our games. Hopefully we figure out at least a quick short-term solution to our offensive woes, and that the D continues to do their thing, and we can get back on track quickly with a possible rematch set for early December.

Across the ACC


As I was either riding to the game, tailgating, or riding from the game all day Saturday, I didn't get to watch any other ACC games this week. Technically I watched the 4th quarter of the Duke game thanks to my sweet new iPhone, but that's not enough to talk about how everyone in the league played.

While I may have technically predicted the winner wrong, it is clear to me that UVA has come down from their early season high. UNC did their part in getting past a loss, like I hope the Hokies are able to do next week. GT and WF continue to look better in their respective ways than many predicted at the beginning of the year, which is good for the conference.

Overall I went 5-3 on game predictions, which I guess is technically better than 5-4 from last week. For all three that I got wrong, it was a conference team I predicted to lose, so I can't take it personally they went out to do their job and prove me wrong. Although if any team is doing anything to me personally, then I am receiving way too much credit from somebody.

Week 5 Predictions: 5-3
October Predictions: 5-3
September Predictions: 30-8
Overall Year-Long Predictions: 35-11


H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!