Thirty Days Hath September (Part II, Coastal Division)

2011/2012 ACC Predictions and Previews


Coastal Division

6. Virginia Cavaliers


It gives me no pleasure predicting UVA to finish last in the Coastal Division this year. It also gives me no pleasure enjoying a nice steak dinner in the company of a beautiful woman. The truth though is that at worst I'll be off by a spot, and UVA is very capable of being the worst team in the division this year. At one point this offseason they had their QB situation narrowed down to four possibilities; I guess one a quarter keeps them fresh. Technically they are down to two now, and that may be their system starting the season. There are a couple of studs on the defensive side of the ball, but it when a bowl game is a high expectation for your team, it says a lot. Not to mention that no matter who UVA recruits lately, it rarely seems to be the players willing to give it all for a win.

September Schedule: 9/3 William and Mary, 9/10 @Indiana, 9/17 @UNC, 9/24 Southern Miss

The season starts off against I-AA in state opponent W&M, in what will be anything but a guaranteed win. They should win, but that doesn't say much when talking about this program. Two away games in a row will be a tough challenge, especially the road trip to Chapel Hill. Nothing like the threat of being 0-1 in-division in September to put the pressure on a team hoping to improve. Southern Miss is a toss up game at this point and will probably come down to the outcomes of the two road trips.

Prediction: 1-3 start; I see at least one win in that group, but I'm not even sure it will be the gimme game. Both road games I see as losses, but UVA has historically played UNC well in the past so it's possible to get the upset there. If that upset does happen I can see the momentum carrying over to the home game against Southern Miss.

Bold Prediction: The best I can think of for this squad is a bowl game, but even in the "bold" category I don't see it happening. So maybe they'll get a late season upset that plays spoiler to another team's conference standing.

5. Duke Blue Devils


Duke has been the doormat of the ACC for a long time. The good news for Blue Devil fans is they have the right coach to help them improve, and appear to have the administration willing to give him time to do so slowly. The Duke offense is a strong upside for this team, especially if QB Sean Renfree and favorite target WR Connor Vernon stay healthy. The real question every game will be can the defense occasionally help out enough to keep the pressure off the offense whenever they have the ball. A winnable non-conference schedule (minus one game) could give the motivation the Blue Devils need once they get into conference play to perhaps move them up from the bottom of the standings.

September Schedule: 9/3 Richmond, 9/10 Stanford, 9/17 @Boston College, 9/24 Tulane

The bookends of the September schedule look nice, but those two middle games will be difficult to say the least. First we have a top 10 team coming into Wallace Wade, and even though Stanford possibly won't be as good as last season, they still have the best player in college football (and still a pretty good team around him). The trip to BC is the lone road trip this month, and Duke may have the fortune of Montel Harris either out if there are complications with his injury, or just returning and perhaps rusty.

Prediction: 2-2 start; With Duke nothing is ever a gimme win, but the Richmond and Tulane games should be wins as long as the offense doesn't sputter. Sure the Devils get Stanford at home, but they could play on the moon, forcing the Cardinal to play in zero gravity, and they would still get run all off the field by that team. BC is a possible upset, but not likely. Although the matchup between high powered offense vs immovable object defense could make the game interesting for a while.

Bold Prediction: Bowl game for the Blue Devils; 3 wins out of conference would mean only needing three more against a weakened division to get that elusive 13th game. Duke did take down UVA last year in a shootout, and besides FSU and VT, every other conference opponent they play have questions on and off the field.

4. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets


Each individual game the Jackets have a chance to win because of their hard to stop offense. Unfortunately for them, last year their defense had a problem stopping the other team's offense as well. Throw in the fact that QB Joshua Nesbitt has used up his eligibility and we have to find a new captain for this ship. In my opinion Nesbitt was the perfect guy to run the option. There are a couple options for his replacement, with most game experience coming from Tevin Washington. He played last year when Nesbitt was hurt, and while I think he is a much better passer than Nesbitt (so if my five year old sister), I don't think he or any of their other options will be able to execute this precise timing offense for at least another year.

September Schedule: 9/3 Western Carolina, 9/10 @MTSU, 9/17 Kansas, 9/24 UNC

First two games should be wins, but that road game to Middle Tenn. could get interesting as both teams are run heavy leading to a possibility of a low scoring game. Kansas comes into Bobby Dodd to finish a home-and-home that started last year, with Kansas winning the first game last year. At the time it was surprising; this year not sure if it would be considered an upset or not. The more I study these other team's schedules the more thankful I am VT doesn't have a conference game in September, as that game against UNC could affect standing placement at the end of November.

Prediction: 3-1 start; not sure if that third win will be Kansas or UNC, but I expected the Jackets to win one of those home games. That could be derailed if the offense hasn't started clicking yet, and a upset by MTSU could be the start of a long season for GT. If Paul Johnson keeps things simple, they should be able to keep most games all season within reach of winning.

Bold Prediction: The game against Duke on November 19 will be a chance for one or both teams to secure a bowl bid. Good for Duke, not so good for GT.

3. Miami Hurricanes


The Hurricanes could be labeled as the most disappointing team in the ACC since joining the conference. Them and FSU were supposed to be the big dogs that gave the conference credibility and neither have performed up to their capabilities. FSU has at least won one conference championship and played for another. Miami hasn't even won their division. Now throw in all the allegations against their program and some current players, and starting over with a new head coach (who had no idea what he was walking into), and there is no way to know how they're going to react. I'm not even going to mention any stats or key players, because as of now we don't know who will be playing, and while full strength they have the talent, there is no way they can prepare a whole season against this scrutiny. They couldn't even keep their heads straight when ESPN and others were praising them every week.

September Schedule: 9/5 @Maryland, 9/17 Ohio St., 9/24 Kansas State

I already talked about what I think will happen in that first game. The Ohio State game will be fun to watch, although possibly not as good as it was a year ago. It appeared that Miami was going to have the edge this year, not only because of being at home, but because Ohio St. was going through their own NCAA problems with player suspensions and a new head coach. Apparently Miami wanted to make things fair, because they have more problems AND players ineligible as of now. Kansas State, a high scoring and rushing team (controlling the clock helps win games) provides a very possible upset to end the month.

Prediction: 1-2 start; I've already predicted Maryland to win Game 1. Ohio State I thought was the better team last year and prior to Tressel resigning this spring. If Miami wasn't dealing with their own problems they would probably win this year. And Kansas State, while maybe the weakest team on there, is very capable given where the Canes' heads might be if they're 0-2. Still, it's hard not to predict this talented bunch to win at least one of those games.

Bold Prediction: It is very possible, especially with a slow September, that Miami won't go bowling this year. For now I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, but this might be less bold than choosing Duke to finish 6-6.

2. North Carolina Tar Heels


The benefit UNCheat has over the Canes is they only lost their coach. As of now, they still have all their players eligible. While mentally there may be times they'll struggle, they at least have the talent to be the second best team in the division. The defense is stout and full of potential future NFL players, including Quinton Coples who is possibly the best player in the conference. The biggest question mark will be first year starting QB Bryn Renner. He has the potential to be a solid QB over the next few years, but has basically no game experience and has only been in the program one year. In the end they'll win more than they'll lose, but this might be the last year for a while where they'll be rewarded with that by getting to go to a bowl game.

September Schedule: 9/3 JMU, 9/10 Rutgers, 9/17 UVA, 9/24 @GT

All these games are winnable, but two conference and in-division games this early in the year gives the possibility of trying to do too much too fast. And while all the players will be on the field, and the game plan probably won't change much, having a new head coach that was thrown in unexpectedly weeks before fall camp started can produce moments of head shaking.

Prediction: 3-1 start; Those first three should all be wins. As mentioned previously, UNC has struggled with UVA in the past. Also a road trip against a tricky GT team could overwhelm a new coach and young offense early. So while 3-1 will look good in the standings, 1-1 in division will leave work to be done the rest of the season.

Bold Prediction: 2-2 against in-state opponents (@ECU, WF, @NC State, Duke)

1. VPI Fighting Gobblers


If there was ever a year to completely seize control over the division they've already dominated, it's now. The future is uncertain at every other school in the Coastal, either because of talent, coaching, or the NCAA; after this year it may be a one team division for a while. That being said, they Hokies have plenty of weapons to back this up. David Wilson is going to be a special player this year, and possibly the best receiving corps in the conference will help new starting QB Logan Thomas. On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Bud Foster is not used to having his boys rank low in total D like they did last year (52nd), so look for much improvement in personnel and schemes this year. This is the 25th year for legendary coach Frank Beamer, and given his track record and off season coaching changes to help with recruiting, this could be a special year for him.

September Schedule: 9/3 App. State, 9/10 @ECU, 9/17 Arkansas St., 9/24 @Marshall

This has been labeled by analysts from all over as a great schedule to introduce a first year starting QB with great potential. Individually all of these games should be wins, and individually no single losses would affect the overall season minus rankings. The most difficult of these would be the road trip to Greenville in week 2, as the Pirates has an electric offense to play with most teams, but their defense needs to improve dramatically if it wants to complete with teams they hope to one day share a conference with.

Prediction: 4-0 start; This one is a no-brainer. Sure anything is possible, but nobody should be betting against this with anything of value. The key during this stretch will be to keep bodies injury-free, and let the new signal caller get his feet wet before tackling a conference schedule that was unblemished last season.

Bold Prediction: 11-1 VT meets 11-1 FSU in the ACC Championship with not only that on the line, but the conference's first ever two BCS bowl bids also at stake.

ACC Championship Prediction:  VPI&SU takes down FSU for their fifth ACC title in eight years

So there we have my conference standing predictions, along with some other team-by-team predictions to follow throughout the season. The time between bowl games and opening games always seems to drag by while the weeks games are being played fly by faster than a B-2 Bomber. So as fans of the game, we should all remember that no matter what happens to our teams, let's cherish every Thursday night and Saturday; and that's what it's all about.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!

Thirty Days Hath September (Part I, Atlantic Division)

The past two times the Hokies have started 0-2 (1995,2010) they rallied the rest of the regular season going undefeated and winning their conference championship. While this is awesome, and makes for a good story after the fact, I don't recommend starting the season this way in regards to the stress level for all the players, coaches, and fans involved. In fact, I'm a strong believer that the first month of games is underrated in its importance, even when some teams play all their non-conference games first.

For my ACC Season Preview, I plan on not only talking about all the important issues regarding each team, but instead of rehashing what you can find from any other publications previews (which I still highly recommend), I will look at how team's first 3-4 games could impact the team later in the season. It could be fun to make predictions based on every game, but with unpredictable factors like injuries, weather, and emotion coming into play week-by-week, it truly becomes a guess after a certain standpoint instead of an educated prediction.

2011/2012 ACC Predictions and Previews


Atlantic Division

6.  Wake Forest

Out of the all the teams in the Atlantic Division, the Demon Deacons are the only one I wouldn't put any amount of money on to win the division. I can (and will) make cases for the other five teams, but there is no chance for these guys. Jim Grobe is a great coach, and has proven in 2006 what he is capable of doing with a talent discrepancy. Josh Harris returns at running back after a solid freshman year, and can help open up the passing game, but this is the same offense that finished 114 out of 120 last year in the passing. That should be an improvement this year due to the fact that Tanner Price was a true freshman last year, but I'm still not expecting quantum leaps to help carry a defense that gave up about 36 points a game last year.

September Schedule: 9/1 @ Syracuse, 9/10 NC State, 9/17 Gardner Webb

Wake Forest opens their season on the first day of real games this season, Thursday night in the Carrier Dome. Anything can happen in Game 1, but Syracuse has a much better defense (which usually dominates first games). Playing an in-conference and in-division game week 2 is cruel, but is probably a moot point in WF's case. Gardner Webb should be a gimme game, even for the Deacs.

Prediction: 1-2 start; possible to get that first week upset and still have a winning record, but even if that were to happen, October starts with three conference games, two against the two best teams in the conference. I never see Wake Forest getting the confidence or emotional high to finish better than 1-7 in conference, 3-9 overall.

Bold Prediction: That one conference win will be against someone other than Duke.

5. Boston College Eagles


Boston College has two of the best players in the conference in Luke Kuechly and Montel Harris, and has historically played above the expectations while in the ACC. Outside of Montel however, there isn't much going on offensively for the Eagles. Chase Rettig begins his second year as the starting qb, and like Tanner Price, he is only a true sophomore, which leaves much room for possible improvement this season. The Eagles are always capable of winning just about every game they play, but this might be the year where they get pushed down the standings due to the amount of talent throughout the rest of the division. Remember that last year the top five teams in the division were all separated by only two games total, so finishing there this year doesn't necessarily mean anything more than which games they lost, rather than total number of losses.

September Schedule: 9/3 Northwestern, 9/10 @UCF, 9/17 Duke, 9/24 UMass

While Duke and UMass should help the Eagles end the month on a bit of a winning streak, those first two games will be competitive. Not only because they're decent teams BC is playing, but because Montel Harris should miss at least one if not both of those. Luckily only one conference game in that bunch, and it is a cross-divisional team at that. In theory none of those losses individually hurts a season's expectations, but certain or multiple losses from the schedule could raise questions.

Prediction: 3-1 start; as I said before, Duke and UMass shouldn't be any problem for the Eagles. Duke's offense vs BC's defense will be an interesting matchup, but would still consider it surprising for BC to lose. I'm not sure which, but that one loss will come from one of those first two games without Harris.

Bold Prediction: If BC doesn't go 4-0 in September, they could finish 6-6 overall. No bowl game if only .500 in September.

4. Maryland Terps


Maryland was the surprise team in the ACC last year. They were one win away from playing in the ACC Championship, and had a pleasant surprise from RS Freshman QB Danny O'Brien. This year though will be different with Randy Edsall coming in for "The Fridge" as head coach. In the long run I like what this does for their program, but transitioning always takes its toll for average programs in year one. Plus for the third team in a row, we have a sophomore qb starting. Since O'Brien has been there a year longer with his redshirt year, and combined with his stats last season, I expect this to be more of a strength as opposed to a question mark. That being said, you still always have to worry about the sophomore slump, whether it's all season or occasional games.

September Schedule: 9/5 Miami, 9/17 WVU, 9/24 Temple

Prediction: 2-1 start; Those two starting games are killer, even with the benefit of being played at home. And I give their AD credit for the bye week in between what would have otherwise been a very quick turnaround. Another benefit of this scheduling comes in that first game, which I'm picking the Terps to win in an upset. As mentioned before, first games of the year are best chances for an underdog to get the upset. Plus we're all aware of what is happening at Miami right now. Even with the extra time I'm picking an "L" against WVU.

Bold Prediction: Maryland surprises a Notre Dame team coming off easy WF, and looking forward to rival BC

3. Clemson


Clemson has a great solid core of players, but without any real standout playmakers to this point. Clemson recruits well every year, but also rarely plays up to their potential, and in my opinion Dabo Swinney isn't the guy to change that. The Tigers only have one player on ESPN's top 25 in the ACC list. That player, Andre Ellington, I feel is very underrated. He was having a great year last year (6 yards per carry) until he was injured and missed the last four games. He is only a junior, and has the ability to have a great season this year, and be one these playmakers that the roster doesn't appear to have right now. Keep in mind Clemson is going to revamp their offense with their new offensive coordinator's decision to run the spread. My only question in that idea is their starting QB Tajh Boyd, who doesn't look the part of a fast paced athlete. I've got mental pictures of Byron Leftwich being carried down the field, only without Boyd actually being hurt in this scenario.

September Schedule: 9/3 Troy, 9/10 Wofford, 9/17 Auburn, 9/24 FSU

Prediction: 2-2 start; This schedule goes from cake walk to triathlon quick. Two easy games to start the year should help with installing the new offense, but that may not be enough once they play the defending National Champs, followed by a top 5 team (followed by a road top 10 team to start October). Even with a 2-2 start, that's only 0-1 in conference, and counting the roadtrip to Blacksburg, the rest of the conference games they have the talent to win.

Bold Prediction: Clemson helps the ACC's rep against the SEC by beating either Auburn or South Carolina, maybe both

2. NC State


Tom O'Brien made one of the gutsiest moves of the off season by letting Russell Wilson transfer instead of letting his distraction from baseball affect who would be his starting QB. The benefit in that decision is giving all the first team reps to Junior Mike Glennon, and getting him prepared to take on that role. The downside is of course now one of the best QBs in the country is playing in a cow field somewhere in one of those landlocked states instead of Raleigh. Like Clemson, there aren't really any "big name" players on the roster that can be your go-to every week, but there is a good core of solid players. The difference that I feel will put the Pack ahead of the Tigers in the standings is Tom O'Brien is a much better coach. NC State also has a great schedule to figure out its identity before playing the hardest parts.

September Schedule: 9/3 Liberty, 9/10 @ Wake Forest, 9/17 South Alabama, 9/22 @ Cincinnati

Prediction: 3-1 start; I want to pick 4-0, I really do. But coming off a short week, on the road, Thursday night, all of my college football intuition says that is an "L". That might be one they regret later in the season, because at the end they'll probably consider the better team. It will be a nice start for a new QB with a relatively easy year long schedule. The only automatic loss I'm calling at this point is @FSU, but still expect a couple more overall.

Bold Prediction: Even with an FSU loss, the last two weeks of the season will determine the winner of the Atlantic division; either the Pack, or...

1. Florida State


Ok I guess that wasn't really dramatic when there was only one team left. Not to mentioned this is the most talked about ACC team in terms of talent and potential this whole off season. If you're reading this I assume you care enough about college football to know why. Or you're just reading it because I wrote it (weird, but thanks). EJ Manuel comes in with plenty of backup experience to justify his ability to win. Jimbo Fisher brought FSU back within a game of winning the ACC in his first season as head coach. The talent they recruit for football is second only to the talent they recruit in the "hot women" category. As has been the case for the past decade however, the real question isn't how good can the Noles be, but how good will they actually be.

September Schedule: 9/3 Louisiana-Monroe, 9/10 Charleston Southern, 9/17 Oklahoma, 9/24 @Clemson

Prediction: 3-1 start; Those first two games are a joke. The only way FSU can "lose" those games is if they lose key players to injuries. The big daddy in there is a rematch against #1 Oklahoma, a chance to redeem themselves from a 47-17 shellacking they took in Norman last year. Both teams should be top 5, game of the week, and Oklahoma is noticeably not as good on the road as at home. I'm not saying FSU can't win this game, but Oklahoma is the real deal this year, and FSU is one year away from that in my opinion. Should be able to go undefeated in conference with their hardest game being @ Clemson after a possible heart breaking loss. But a case of the Noles being overhyped again could open the door for NC State to be there with them in the standings.

Bold Prediction: 11-1 FSU meets 11-1 VT in the ACC Championship with not only that on the line, but the conference's first ever two BCS bowl bids also at stake.

He That Will Cheat At Play, Will Cheat You Any Way

Back in college, my roommate and I always loved to use the line "If you're not cheating, you're not trying hard enough".  Sounds like it makes sense. By definition, if you are cheating, you are altering the rules of the game to (hopefully) gain a competitive advantage. And for anyone who ever cheated at school, you know it usually does require more work. Instead of just memorizing the information, you have to find a way to conceal the information, be able to call upon the cheat sheet at the right time, all the while not getting caught.

So when three teams from the same conference, the same division even, have been caught cheating in the past calendar year, an outsider would probably expect those teams to be kicking ass and taking names every season. Or at the very least, for that division to be one of the most competitive in all of the sport.

Not so fast my friend.

In the past 365 days (approximately), the University of North Carolina, the University of Miami, and Georgia Tech have all officially and unofficially been charged with a number of violations in connection with their respective football programs. In the past six years since the ACC expanded to 12 teams, thus creating two 6-team divisions, only two teams have won this division. And one of those two teams didn't have to cheat.

To be honest, I don't really care about what GT did to get punished. Player received a few hundred dollars worth of clothing, was coached to some extent on what to say during his interview, GT gets in trouble. That's boring. Have you seen all the cool stuff other programs are doing?

What makes them interesting, and helps me make an overall point, is the fact that they're the only team on this list to win their division (twice) and the conference championship (once). The bad news for the Yellow Jackets is this one, not very big deal, happened around the time they won their only post-expansion ACC Championship, thus forcing them to vacate the title. I don't mind still saying they won the title. They won on the field, and their crime wasn't an on-field advantage. Moving on.

I have personally enjoyed everything that has gone down in this next case. There aren't many fan bases that are as passionate about their sports teams as UNC; just like there aren't many fan bases that have such a high percentage of their fans who didn't even attend (or possibly ever visited) the school. And when most of your fans only care about sports and not the university, we learn how low a price you're willing to sell your soul for.

After years of mediocrity, UNC made what was supposed to be "the decision" to turn their program into the next college football powerhouse by hiring Butch Davis. Well the good news for them is they now are up there with some of the greatest teams of all time...on the list of teams who cut corners and used unethical behavior to try and win a game. Unfortunately for them, they forgot to win while they tried to tilt the scales.

One thing UNC gets credit for is not putting all their eggs in one basket. They didn't pick one way to cheat and focus all their energy there. UNC was willing to turn a blind eye in every area.

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I'm going to say this on the record, and in my first ever blog, because that is how strongly I believe in this next sentence:

BUTCH DAVIS KNEW EVERYTHING, HE HAS NEVER HAD A PROBLEM WITH CHEATING, AND ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT HIM HAS COME FROM SOME SORT OF SPIN MACHINE AND FROM FANS WHO ARE WILLING TO BELIEVE WHATEVER HELPS THEM SLEEP AT NIGHT!

I'll be honest. There is a lot of alleged sh!t going on down at South Beach; and for once it is actually interesting. No tattoos, or shirts, or parking tickets. This is how you're supposed to cheat: hookers, yachts, player bounty payments, and clubbing it up every week.

That being said, Miami isn't worth my time. I will enjoy their demise, and never feel sorry for the self-important, waste of talent players and fans who, at least in spirit, were all to blame for this. They built a reputation to be the bad boys, and that is exactly how they're always be remembered now. Good riddance.

So with all this going on for a few weeks (GT), a few years (UNC), and a lifetime most likely (Miami), there is still the final result of what all this cheating helped these teams achieve:

Overall (Conference) Records since 2004
Georgia Tech: 56-35 (37-21); two Coastal Division Championships, one ACC Championship (vacated)

UNC: 42-43 (26-30), Butch Davis era only: 28-23 (15-11), zero division/conference championships

Miami: 53-35 (30-26), zero division/conference championships

Virginia Tech: 73-21 (49-10), four Coastal Division Championships, four ACC Championships

Well I guess we were wrong; you can be cheating and still not try hard enough to win.

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!

Coming Fall 2011

Beginning with the start of the 2011-2012 football season, I will bring to you my thoughts and feelings surrounding Virginia Tech athletics. Focusing mainly on ACC football and basketball, this blog will update on a regular basis to comment on all the stories that impact the season, and attempt to entertain with the various ways I find to share my opinions. Not quite sure what that means? Well neither do I, yet, but hopefully lightning will strike and the creativity will flow.

Already this year we have rumors of teams possibly SECeding, programs in fear of the NCAA backhand bitchslap, and the Hokies start off a new era at QB; and we're still three weeks away from games being played. So stay tuned, and here is to another great year of college football!

H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!