2011/2012 ACC Predictions and Previews
Coastal Division
It gives me no pleasure predicting UVA to finish last in the Coastal Division this year. It also gives me no pleasure enjoying a nice steak dinner in the company of a beautiful woman. The truth though is that at worst I'll be off by a spot, and UVA is very capable of being the worst team in the division this year. At one point this offseason they had their QB situation narrowed down to four possibilities; I guess one a quarter keeps them fresh. Technically they are down to two now, and that may be their system starting the season. There are a couple of studs on the defensive side of the ball, but it when a bowl game is a high expectation for your team, it says a lot. Not to mention that no matter who UVA recruits lately, it rarely seems to be the players willing to give it all for a win.
September Schedule: 9/3 William and Mary, 9/10 @Indiana, 9/17 @UNC, 9/24 Southern Miss
The season starts off against I-AA in state opponent W&M, in what will be anything but a guaranteed win. They should win, but that doesn't say much when talking about this program. Two away games in a row will be a tough challenge, especially the road trip to Chapel Hill. Nothing like the threat of being 0-1 in-division in September to put the pressure on a team hoping to improve. Southern Miss is a toss up game at this point and will probably come down to the outcomes of the two road trips.
Prediction: 1-3 start; I see at least one win in that group, but I'm not even sure it will be the gimme game. Both road games I see as losses, but UVA has historically played UNC well in the past so it's possible to get the upset there. If that upset does happen I can see the momentum carrying over to the home game against Southern Miss.
Bold Prediction: The best I can think of for this squad is a bowl game, but even in the "bold" category I don't see it happening. So maybe they'll get a late season upset that plays spoiler to another team's conference standing.
Duke has been the doormat of the ACC for a long time. The good news for Blue Devil fans is they have the right coach to help them improve, and appear to have the administration willing to give him time to do so slowly. The Duke offense is a strong upside for this team, especially if QB Sean Renfree and favorite target WR Connor Vernon stay healthy. The real question every game will be can the defense occasionally help out enough to keep the pressure off the offense whenever they have the ball. A winnable non-conference schedule (minus one game) could give the motivation the Blue Devils need once they get into conference play to perhaps move them up from the bottom of the standings.
September Schedule: 9/3 Richmond, 9/10 Stanford, 9/17 @Boston College, 9/24 Tulane
The bookends of the September schedule look nice, but those two middle games will be difficult to say the least. First we have a top 10 team coming into Wallace Wade, and even though Stanford possibly won't be as good as last season, they still have the best player in college football (and still a pretty good team around him). The trip to BC is the lone road trip this month, and Duke may have the fortune of Montel Harris either out if there are complications with his injury, or just returning and perhaps rusty.
Prediction: 2-2 start; With Duke nothing is ever a gimme win, but the Richmond and Tulane games should be wins as long as the offense doesn't sputter. Sure the Devils get Stanford at home, but they could play on the moon, forcing the Cardinal to play in zero gravity, and they would still get run all off the field by that team. BC is a possible upset, but not likely. Although the matchup between high powered offense vs immovable object defense could make the game interesting for a while.
Bold Prediction: Bowl game for the Blue Devils; 3 wins out of conference would mean only needing three more against a weakened division to get that elusive 13th game. Duke did take down UVA last year in a shootout, and besides FSU and VT, every other conference opponent they play have questions on and off the field.
Each individual game the Jackets have a chance to win because of their hard to stop offense. Unfortunately for them, last year their defense had a problem stopping the other team's offense as well. Throw in the fact that QB Joshua Nesbitt has used up his eligibility and we have to find a new captain for this ship. In my opinion Nesbitt was the perfect guy to run the option. There are a couple options for his replacement, with most game experience coming from Tevin Washington. He played last year when Nesbitt was hurt, and while I think he is a much better passer than Nesbitt (so if my five year old sister), I don't think he or any of their other options will be able to execute this precise timing offense for at least another year.
September Schedule: 9/3 Western Carolina, 9/10 @MTSU, 9/17 Kansas, 9/24 UNC
First two games should be wins, but that road game to Middle Tenn. could get interesting as both teams are run heavy leading to a possibility of a low scoring game. Kansas comes into Bobby Dodd to finish a home-and-home that started last year, with Kansas winning the first game last year. At the time it was surprising; this year not sure if it would be considered an upset or not. The more I study these other team's schedules the more thankful I am VT doesn't have a conference game in September, as that game against UNC could affect standing placement at the end of November.
Prediction: 3-1 start; not sure if that third win will be Kansas or UNC, but I expected the Jackets to win one of those home games. That could be derailed if the offense hasn't started clicking yet, and a upset by MTSU could be the start of a long season for GT. If Paul Johnson keeps things simple, they should be able to keep most games all season within reach of winning.
Bold Prediction: The game against Duke on November 19 will be a chance for one or both teams to secure a bowl bid. Good for Duke, not so good for GT.
The Hurricanes could be labeled as the most disappointing team in the ACC since joining the conference. Them and FSU were supposed to be the big dogs that gave the conference credibility and neither have performed up to their capabilities. FSU has at least won one conference championship and played for another. Miami hasn't even won their division. Now throw in all the allegations against their program and some current players, and starting over with a new head coach (who had no idea what he was walking into), and there is no way to know how they're going to react. I'm not even going to mention any stats or key players, because as of now we don't know who will be playing, and while full strength they have the talent, there is no way they can prepare a whole season against this scrutiny. They couldn't even keep their heads straight when ESPN and others were praising them every week.
September Schedule: 9/5 @Maryland, 9/17 Ohio St., 9/24 Kansas State
I already talked about what I think will happen in that first game. The Ohio State game will be fun to watch, although possibly not as good as it was a year ago. It appeared that Miami was going to have the edge this year, not only because of being at home, but because Ohio St. was going through their own NCAA problems with player suspensions and a new head coach. Apparently Miami wanted to make things fair, because they have more problems AND players ineligible as of now. Kansas State, a high scoring and rushing team (controlling the clock helps win games) provides a very possible upset to end the month.
Prediction: 1-2 start; I've already predicted Maryland to win Game 1. Ohio State I thought was the better team last year and prior to Tressel resigning this spring. If Miami wasn't dealing with their own problems they would probably win this year. And Kansas State, while maybe the weakest team on there, is very capable given where the Canes' heads might be if they're 0-2. Still, it's hard not to predict this talented bunch to win at least one of those games.
Bold Prediction: It is very possible, especially with a slow September, that Miami won't go bowling this year. For now I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, but this might be less bold than choosing Duke to finish 6-6.
The benefit UNCheat has over the Canes is they only lost their coach. As of now, they still have all their players eligible. While mentally there may be times they'll struggle, they at least have the talent to be the second best team in the division. The defense is stout and full of potential future NFL players, including Quinton Coples who is possibly the best player in the conference. The biggest question mark will be first year starting QB Bryn Renner. He has the potential to be a solid QB over the next few years, but has basically no game experience and has only been in the program one year. In the end they'll win more than they'll lose, but this might be the last year for a while where they'll be rewarded with that by getting to go to a bowl game.
September Schedule: 9/3 JMU, 9/10 Rutgers, 9/17 UVA, 9/24 @GT
All these games are winnable, but two conference and in-division games this early in the year gives the possibility of trying to do too much too fast. And while all the players will be on the field, and the game plan probably won't change much, having a new head coach that was thrown in unexpectedly weeks before fall camp started can produce moments of head shaking.
Prediction: 3-1 start; Those first three should all be wins. As mentioned previously, UNC has struggled with UVA in the past. Also a road trip against a tricky GT team could overwhelm a new coach and young offense early. So while 3-1 will look good in the standings, 1-1 in division will leave work to be done the rest of the season.
Bold Prediction: 2-2 against in-state opponents (@ECU, WF, @NC State, Duke)
If there was ever a year to completely seize control over the division they've already dominated, it's now. The future is uncertain at every other school in the Coastal, either because of talent, coaching, or the NCAA; after this year it may be a one team division for a while. That being said, they Hokies have plenty of weapons to back this up. David Wilson is going to be a special player this year, and possibly the best receiving corps in the conference will help new starting QB Logan Thomas. On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Bud Foster is not used to having his boys rank low in total D like they did last year (52nd), so look for much improvement in personnel and schemes this year. This is the 25th year for legendary coach Frank Beamer, and given his track record and off season coaching changes to help with recruiting, this could be a special year for him.
September Schedule: 9/3 App. State, 9/10 @ECU, 9/17 Arkansas St., 9/24 @Marshall
This has been labeled by analysts from all over as a great schedule to introduce a first year starting QB with great potential. Individually all of these games should be wins, and individually no single losses would affect the overall season minus rankings. The most difficult of these would be the road trip to Greenville in week 2, as the Pirates has an electric offense to play with most teams, but their defense needs to improve dramatically if it wants to complete with teams they hope to one day share a conference with.
Prediction: 4-0 start; This one is a no-brainer. Sure anything is possible, but nobody should be betting against this with anything of value. The key during this stretch will be to keep bodies injury-free, and let the new signal caller get his feet wet before tackling a conference schedule that was unblemished last season.
Bold Prediction: 11-1 VT meets 11-1 FSU in the ACC Championship with not only that on the line, but the conference's first ever two BCS bowl bids also at stake.
ACC Championship Prediction: VPI&SU takes down FSU for their fifth ACC title in eight years
So there we have my conference standing predictions, along with some other team-by-team predictions to follow throughout the season. The time between bowl games and opening games always seems to drag by while the weeks games are being played fly by faster than a B-2 Bomber. So as fans of the game, we should all remember that no matter what happens to our teams, let's cherish every Thursday night and Saturday; and that's what it's all about.
H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!
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