For my ACC Season Preview, I plan on not only talking about all the important issues regarding each team, but instead of rehashing what you can find from any other publications previews (which I still highly recommend), I will look at how team's first 3-4 games could impact the team later in the season. It could be fun to make predictions based on every game, but with unpredictable factors like injuries, weather, and emotion coming into play week-by-week, it truly becomes a guess after a certain standpoint instead of an educated prediction.
2011/2012 ACC Predictions and Previews
Atlantic Division
Out of the all the teams in the Atlantic Division, the Demon Deacons are the only one I wouldn't put any amount of money on to win the division. I can (and will) make cases for the other five teams, but there is no chance for these guys. Jim Grobe is a great coach, and has proven in 2006 what he is capable of doing with a talent discrepancy. Josh Harris returns at running back after a solid freshman year, and can help open up the passing game, but this is the same offense that finished 114 out of 120 last year in the passing. That should be an improvement this year due to the fact that Tanner Price was a true freshman last year, but I'm still not expecting quantum leaps to help carry a defense that gave up about 36 points a game last year.
September Schedule: 9/1 @ Syracuse, 9/10 NC State, 9/17 Gardner Webb
Wake Forest opens their season on the first day of real games this season, Thursday night in the Carrier Dome. Anything can happen in Game 1, but Syracuse has a much better defense (which usually dominates first games). Playing an in-conference and in-division game week 2 is cruel, but is probably a moot point in WF's case. Gardner Webb should be a gimme game, even for the Deacs.
Prediction: 1-2 start; possible to get that first week upset and still have a winning record, but even if that were to happen, October starts with three conference games, two against the two best teams in the conference. I never see Wake Forest getting the confidence or emotional high to finish better than 1-7 in conference, 3-9 overall.
Bold Prediction: That one conference win will be against someone other than Duke.
Boston College has two of the best players in the conference in Luke Kuechly and Montel Harris, and has historically played above the expectations while in the ACC. Outside of Montel however, there isn't much going on offensively for the Eagles. Chase Rettig begins his second year as the starting qb, and like Tanner Price, he is only a true sophomore, which leaves much room for possible improvement this season. The Eagles are always capable of winning just about every game they play, but this might be the year where they get pushed down the standings due to the amount of talent throughout the rest of the division. Remember that last year the top five teams in the division were all separated by only two games total, so finishing there this year doesn't necessarily mean anything more than which games they lost, rather than total number of losses.
September Schedule: 9/3 Northwestern, 9/10 @UCF, 9/17 Duke, 9/24 UMass
While Duke and UMass should help the Eagles end the month on a bit of a winning streak, those first two games will be competitive. Not only because they're decent teams BC is playing, but because Montel Harris should miss at least one if not both of those. Luckily only one conference game in that bunch, and it is a cross-divisional team at that. In theory none of those losses individually hurts a season's expectations, but certain or multiple losses from the schedule could raise questions.
Prediction: 3-1 start; as I said before, Duke and UMass shouldn't be any problem for the Eagles. Duke's offense vs BC's defense will be an interesting matchup, but would still consider it surprising for BC to lose. I'm not sure which, but that one loss will come from one of those first two games without Harris.
Bold Prediction: If BC doesn't go 4-0 in September, they could finish 6-6 overall. No bowl game if only .500 in September.
Maryland was the surprise team in the ACC last year. They were one win away from playing in the ACC Championship, and had a pleasant surprise from RS Freshman QB Danny O'Brien. This year though will be different with Randy Edsall coming in for "The Fridge" as head coach. In the long run I like what this does for their program, but transitioning always takes its toll for average programs in year one. Plus for the third team in a row, we have a sophomore qb starting. Since O'Brien has been there a year longer with his redshirt year, and combined with his stats last season, I expect this to be more of a strength as opposed to a question mark. That being said, you still always have to worry about the sophomore slump, whether it's all season or occasional games.
September Schedule: 9/5 Miami, 9/17 WVU, 9/24 Temple
Prediction: 2-1 start; Those two starting games are killer, even with the benefit of being played at home. And I give their AD credit for the bye week in between what would have otherwise been a very quick turnaround. Another benefit of this scheduling comes in that first game, which I'm picking the Terps to win in an upset. As mentioned before, first games of the year are best chances for an underdog to get the upset. Plus we're all aware of what is happening at Miami right now. Even with the extra time I'm picking an "L" against WVU.
Bold Prediction: Maryland surprises a Notre Dame team coming off easy WF, and looking forward to rival BC
Clemson has a great solid core of players, but without any real standout playmakers to this point. Clemson recruits well every year, but also rarely plays up to their potential, and in my opinion Dabo Swinney isn't the guy to change that. The Tigers only have one player on ESPN's top 25 in the ACC list. That player, Andre Ellington, I feel is very underrated. He was having a great year last year (6 yards per carry) until he was injured and missed the last four games. He is only a junior, and has the ability to have a great season this year, and be one these playmakers that the roster doesn't appear to have right now. Keep in mind Clemson is going to revamp their offense with their new offensive coordinator's decision to run the spread. My only question in that idea is their starting QB Tajh Boyd, who doesn't look the part of a fast paced athlete. I've got mental pictures of Byron Leftwich being carried down the field, only without Boyd actually being hurt in this scenario.
September Schedule: 9/3 Troy, 9/10 Wofford, 9/17 Auburn, 9/24 FSU
Prediction: 2-2 start; This schedule goes from cake walk to triathlon quick. Two easy games to start the year should help with installing the new offense, but that may not be enough once they play the defending National Champs, followed by a top 5 team (followed by a road top 10 team to start October). Even with a 2-2 start, that's only 0-1 in conference, and counting the roadtrip to Blacksburg, the rest of the conference games they have the talent to win.
Bold Prediction: Clemson helps the ACC's rep against the SEC by beating either Auburn or South Carolina, maybe both
Tom O'Brien made one of the gutsiest moves of the off season by letting Russell Wilson transfer instead of letting his distraction from baseball affect who would be his starting QB. The benefit in that decision is giving all the first team reps to Junior Mike Glennon, and getting him prepared to take on that role. The downside is of course now one of the best QBs in the country is playing in a cow field somewhere in one of those landlocked states instead of Raleigh. Like Clemson, there aren't really any "big name" players on the roster that can be your go-to every week, but there is a good core of solid players. The difference that I feel will put the Pack ahead of the Tigers in the standings is Tom O'Brien is a much better coach. NC State also has a great schedule to figure out its identity before playing the hardest parts.
September Schedule: 9/3 Liberty, 9/10 @ Wake Forest, 9/17 South Alabama, 9/22 @ Cincinnati
Prediction: 3-1 start; I want to pick 4-0, I really do. But coming off a short week, on the road, Thursday night, all of my college football intuition says that is an "L". That might be one they regret later in the season, because at the end they'll probably consider the better team. It will be a nice start for a new QB with a relatively easy year long schedule. The only automatic loss I'm calling at this point is @FSU, but still expect a couple more overall.
Bold Prediction: Even with an FSU loss, the last two weeks of the season will determine the winner of the Atlantic division; either the Pack, or...
Ok I guess that wasn't really dramatic when there was only one team left. Not to mentioned this is the most talked about ACC team in terms of talent and potential this whole off season. If you're reading this I assume you care enough about college football to know why. Or you're just reading it because I wrote it (weird, but thanks). EJ Manuel comes in with plenty of backup experience to justify his ability to win. Jimbo Fisher brought FSU back within a game of winning the ACC in his first season as head coach. The talent they recruit for football is second only to the talent they recruit in the "hot women" category. As has been the case for the past decade however, the real question isn't how good can the Noles be, but how good will they actually be.
September Schedule: 9/3 Louisiana-Monroe, 9/10 Charleston Southern, 9/17 Oklahoma, 9/24 @Clemson
Prediction: 3-1 start; Those first two games are a joke. The only way FSU can "lose" those games is if they lose key players to injuries. The big daddy in there is a rematch against #1 Oklahoma, a chance to redeem themselves from a 47-17 shellacking they took in Norman last year. Both teams should be top 5, game of the week, and Oklahoma is noticeably not as good on the road as at home. I'm not saying FSU can't win this game, but Oklahoma is the real deal this year, and FSU is one year away from that in my opinion. Should be able to go undefeated in conference with their hardest game being @ Clemson after a possible heart breaking loss. But a case of the Noles being overhyped again could open the door for NC State to be there with them in the standings.
Bold Prediction: 11-1 FSU meets 11-1 VT in the ACC Championship with not only that on the line, but the conference's first ever two BCS bowl bids also at stake.
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