While I don't think Duke is far and away the worst team in the ACC like there were when the league expanded in 2004, their reputation is what would make losing to Duke the hardest for many fans of top tier programs. I'll come out and say this out of full disclosure: I am in fact a Duke fan, second of course to the Hokies. I root for Duke in any game that they aren't playing the Hokies, or in any game where them winning doesn't hurt the Hokies in any way.
Growing up in North Carolina, it was almost an unwritten rule to have an in-state ACC team to root for, mostly in basketball, and Duke is who I picked as a kid. I see why many people dislike them, because it is mainly for the same reasons I dislike UNC: their fans. The big difference I find between the two is that UNC fans are Duke fans on steroids, for lack of a better metaphor. And for anyone who asks why I had to pick between Duke or UNC, and not NC State or Wake Forest, my answer would be I enjoyed watching my favorite teams win. Bandwagon, yes, but when you're a kid, and it's really just for second favorite, you might as well pick someone good (and also at the time I never expected the Hokies to be in the ACC).
I don't sugarcoat the fact that Duke isn't "Duke" in football. They aren't the cocky, self-righteous group that you may see in other sports. They do have the right guy in charge to try and get them to that next level. The fact that a bowl game was/is a possibility for this team says a lot about how far they've come over the past handful of years. All that being said, they are not where they need to be to beat a program like Virginia Tech, without a lot of help, some of which they are getting before the first kickoff.
Duke Offense
This is the one area that the Blue Devils can put in the "pros" column. At least their passing offense is a strength. Their run game isn't quite effective enough to make them a true threat against any team with a strong secondary.
Sean Renfree is one of those quality quarterbacks who would probably be a household name if he played for a top-50 team BCS team. He is a smart and accurate QB (almost 70% completion this season), and has lots of help around him. The dangerous "V's" in Vernon and Varner have been two of the top receivers since they were freshman, and defenses having to keep an eye out on two quality wideouts opens up even more options.
While the Duke running game hasn't been terribly effective this year, mostly due to injuries and a poor offensive line, their backs are good check down options for Renfree. I'm sure if they wanted to, the Blue Devils could send "The V's" down the field, and dump it off short a high percentage of the time and get as many if not more yards that they would get from a traditional run play.
The biggest question mark when this unit is on the field will be how the depleted defense of the Hokies can hold up against the offense with potential to drive every time. The formations that Bud will draw up won't be exactly the ones he would use with a completely healthy defense. To make way for some of the inexperienced players that will be out on the field, we may see more of a nickel package like we used last year. We'll see how often players like Nick Dew are in the game like he would if we used our traditional 4-3 D. And while nobody wants to lose a Bruce Taylor, I am looking forward to seeing if Barquell can bring back some of the magic he had a couple years ago before his injury.
Duke Defense
While Cutliffe has done a tremendous job recruiting some underrated offensive talent, he hasn't quite got the guys he'd like on the other side of the ball to complete against the big boys. This year showcases a lot of young faces, and while that may be a positive in a couple years, we don't play games in the future, but in the present.
Up front, Duke lost one of it's best players with DE Anunike hurting his knee and being lost for the remainder of the season. Hokie fans are sick of losing players every single week, but teams like Duke, and Boston College last week, are losing just as many players, and they don't have the depth to replace them in an effective manner like we do. We worry about a player without experience missing an assignment, or not hearing the communicated play correctly. Duke has to replace their injured guys with players who, no matter how smart they may be, aren't big or skilled enough to stop most teams.
One wrinkle you don't see often but will see on Saturday, is the fact that instead of a traditional 4-3-4, or 3-4-4, (or 3-3-5 if you're ass backwards cousin lovers) the Devils play a 4-2-5 scheme. I'm not an X's or O's kind of guy, but if I was building a defense, I would build around a solid linebacking corps, and would definitely want more than just two out on the field at a time. Even with just a couple out there at a time, Duke does have one of the best linebackers in the league in Kelby Brown. There should still be plenty of room over the middle for quick passes or runs.
Logan Thomas has been throwing his deep ball rather effectively this year, but we'll see how often that play is called with Duke playing two corners and three safeties on most plays. Most of these guys play a hybrid of two different positions depending on what the offense is doing, but there is a lot of inexperience at play. Cornerback Johnny Williams for example used to be a wide receiver. Due to the effectiveness of "The V's", as well as his speed and hands, he was moved to CB before last season. I would expect Duke to play a lot of zone, not expecting to be able to matchup man-to-man with the Hokies. That shouldn't be a big problem for the Hokies or The Lieutenant though, as he was very effective against the zone last week versus the Eagles.
I think Duke will be able to put up a couple touchdowns on the depleted Hokie D, but I also expected the Hokies to do the same in return, only in greater numbers. If the Hokie O decides to start slow again, this game could be closer into the second half than many would expect. I think it will be a good game for our young defensive players to get valuable playing time against a decent offense.
In the end, an upset will be unlikely, but crazier things have happened in this league. Kind of like how the Canes always have one of the best recruiting classes, put the most players in the NFL, yet in between can't even beat UVA year in and out.
Score Prediction: Gobblers 35 Devils 17
H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!
Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler
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