In a divisional alignment that was intended to showcase many FSU vs Miami conference championship games, the Coastal Division has been dominated by the Techs. Not only that, but the division representative has always been the winner of the matchup between these two schools. Here is how it has broken down since the conference expanded in 2004:
2004: #22 VT: 34 GT: 20; Virginia Tech wins ACC (no divisions/championship game)
2005: #4 VT: 51 GT: 7; Virginia Tech loses to FSU in ACC Championship
2006: #11 VT: 27 GT: 38; Georgia Tech loses to Wake Forest in ACC Championship
2007: #11 VT: 27 GT: 3; Virginia Tech beats Boston College in ACC Championship
*2008: VT: 20 GT: 17; Virginia Tech beats Boston College in ACC Championship
*2009: #4 VT: 23 #19 GT: 28; Georgia Tech beats Clemson in ACC Championship
*2010: #20 VT: 28 GT: 21; Virginia Tech beats FSU in ACC Championship
*indicates Paul Johnson/Triple Option era
While this streak is rather impressive, it has also led to the conference champion the past four seasons; GT technically didn't win it in 2009 due to NCAA infractions, but that doesn't matter for the point being made here.
If Georgia Tech wins on Thursday, all they need to do to get to Charlotte is beat Duke, and have UVA lose one of their last three games against either Duke, FSU, or VT; very likely.
If Virginia Tech wins on Thursday, all they need to do is beat UVA, or beat UNC with UVA losing to either Duke or FSU; also likely.
But the one common denominator for both teams is to win Thursday night in ATL. Here are the keys for both teams in reaching that goal.
Georgia Tech Wins If
1) Control the clock with long, sustained drives.
Both the Gobblers and Bumblebees are towards the top of the national rankings when it comes to Time of Possession. Something will have to give for this game. GT's bread and butter is to cause their opponents' "death by a thousand cuts". They will gladly, especially with a lead in the second half, keep running their option plays that will get at least 4-5 yards a play, never having to throw, and always picking up a first down. More often than not it will get them points, tire out the defense, and eat up a bunch of clock.
2) Keep the Hokie O from getting in a rhythm
Al Groh has been the butt of jokes from the VT faithful for his inability to beat and compete with the Hokies in almost all facets of the game during his last years at rival UVA. Last season he became the DC at GT and brought his patented 3-4 defense with him. Last year a defense that was struggling up to that point did a good job at holding the Hokie offense to just 21 points (not counting DW's kickoff return). This year the defense isn't stellar by any means, but Groh's knowledge of VT tendencies and our own inconsistency could lead to another long (or short if we're going by drive length) night for the Gobblers.
3) Keep the ball away from/contain David Wilson
The GT defense isn't great, and their run defense is a big part of that. In the games the Hokies have struggled on offense, it has been due to getting away from the run too much. If GT comes up with a gameplan to contain DW when he gets the ball in the backfield, and makes sure to kick away from him on kickoffs, it will take a lot of pressure off of them. While this team is capable of spreading the ball to a number of receivers and putting up a lot of passing yards, I'm sure the Yellow Jackets would rather take their chances with that than the guy who beat them in the 4th quarter last year.
Virginia Tech Wins If
1) Comes out aggressive from the opening kick
The last time these two teams met in ATL, Virginia Tech looked like they should easily win by putting up huge numbers against a poor statistical defense, but only had 3 points at halftime. Then in the second half the GT offense kept a tired defense on the field, and didn't allow enough possessions for a Hokie comeback. The same might have been said about the game last year had Nesbitt not been injured resulting in a stagnant second half offense. The key to beating this offensive style is to force them to pass the ball by forcing them to play from behind.
2) A young and undersized defense stepping up
As Chris Coleman of TechSideline pointed out in his preview article, the starting front 7 for the Hokie D are all r-sophomores or younger. They are also much smaller than you would like for those 7 to be in order to get between the gaps. Hopefully what they lack in size is made up for in speed. Some size was lost due to injury to Hopkins, and some speed was lost also to injury to Tweedy. These are the kind of games where young players can make a name for themselves by stepping up and filling in roles some may think they can't. We're not asking for a shutout, just enough stops to give the offense a chance to score more.
3) Get the ball to their many playmakers
While David Wilson might be the best player to knife through the GT defense, he isn't the only one who can hurt them. The 3-4 defense has in the past given the Hokies problems, but this team has played enough 3-4 defenses this year to know what they can and can't do against it. Hopefully the gameplan starts with a lot of David Wilson, but whether or not that is effective, there needs to be a healthy dose of read option, and getting the ball to our plethora of receivers. It is unlikely that this will be a game where both teams will score less than 2-3 touchdowns, and the mindset for the coaches and players should be to give themselves the best chance to score as often as possible.
While the allure of Virginia Tech on a Thursday night game has gone down over the past few seasons, this game is one that will be great to have in primetime in front of a national audience. It is essentially a play-in game to the conference championship, and should be a great game to watch for everyone (not counting the fans of the team who ends up losing).
There are a couple other intangibles in the Hokies favor. Virginia Tech is 24-2 in the month of November since joining the ACC. Both of those losses came to Miami. The Gobblers also have an 11 game win streak on the road. Only five other teams, for a total of six times, have had a streak of 12 or more since 1995. This is a good program both on the road, and late in the year when wins matter. On paper it looks like our depleted defense may be the difference in who wins this game, but as always, In Beamer We Trust.
Score Prediction: Gobblers 31 Bumblebees 28
H-O-K-I-E-S HOKIES!!!
Follow along on Twitter @UtProsimGobbler
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